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Predictions › France › AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans
Ligue 1Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 France time

AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

AJ AuxerreHome
1.60 : 1.22
expected goals
Le MansAway
45%Auxerre
26%Draw
29%Le Mans
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans is AJ Auxerre to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
AJ Auxerre to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AJ Auxerre 1.6, Le Mans 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AJ Auxerre to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.691 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AJ Auxerre 45%, the draw 26% and Le Mans 29%. The bookmakers agree and make AJ Auxerre the favourite at 2.10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AJ Auxerre took 6 points from their last 5 games and Le Mans took 5 from 5. AJ Auxerre come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AJ Auxerre won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Le Mans won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AJ Auxerre score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Le Mans score 1.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of AJ Auxerre games and 10 of Le Mans games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Auxerre form D W W L LLe Mans form D W D D LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans: AJ Auxerre are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AJ Auxerre host Le Mans in the Ligue 1 on Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. Our prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans is AJ Auxerre to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

AJ Auxerre form

AJ Auxerre have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Le Mans form

Le Mans have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect AJ Auxerre to score about 1.6 goals and Le Mans about 1.2. That points to AJ Auxerre to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is AJ Auxerre to win and Over 2.5 at 3.69.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AuxerreLe Mans
Games played2020
Wins78
Draws69
Losses73
Goals scored2836
Goals conceded3125
Scored per game1.41.8
Conceded per game1.61.3
Home record5W 3D 2L4W 5D 0L
Away record2W 3D 5L4W 4D 3L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
AJ Auxerre to win45%2.222.10-5.6%
A Draw24%4.093.55-13.2%
Le Mans to win27%3.753.25-13.3%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.961.71-12.6%
Under 2.5 goals46%2.192.00-8.9%
AJ Auxerre -0.545%2.211.95-11.6%
Le Mans +0.551%1.951.67-14.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.87
Over 3.5 goals31%3.20
Both teams to score57%1.75
AJ Auxerre or Draw71%1.40
Le Mans or Draw55%1.83
AJ Auxerre to win and Over 2.529%3.45
Le Mans to win and Over 2.517%5.71
AJ Auxerre clean sheet29%3.40
Le Mans clean sheet20%4.95

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
2-19.3%
1-08.8%
2-07.6%
1-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans?

Our prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans is AJ Auxerre to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect AJ Auxerre to score 1.6 goals and Le Mans 1.2.

Will both teams score in AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of AJ Auxerre last 20 games and 13 of Le Mans last 20.

How are AJ Auxerre playing?

AJ Auxerre have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Le Mans playing?

Le Mans have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Auxerre against Le Mans. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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