Predictions › France › AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC

Ligue 1Sat 7 Nov, 16:15 France time

AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC prediction

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

AJ AuxerreHome

1.16 : 1.45

expected goals

Paris FCAway

30%Auxerre

28%Draw

43%Paris FC

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC is Paris FC to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Paris FC to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AJ Auxerre 1.2, Paris FC 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AJ Auxerre to win

28% chancePrice 3.60+2.3% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AJ Auxerre 30%, the draw 28% and Paris FC 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Paris FC the favourite at 1.91.
2
Recent form
AJ Auxerre took 10 points from their last 5 games and Paris FC took 7 from 5. AJ Auxerre come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AJ Auxerre won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Paris FC won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AJ Auxerre score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Paris FC score 1.7 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of AJ Auxerre games and 11 of Paris FC games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, AJ Auxerre won 0 and Paris FC won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended AJ Auxerre 0, Paris FC 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Auxerrerecent form+3%
Paris FCrecent form+1%

Auxerre form D W L W WParis FC form D W L W DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC: Paris FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AJ Auxerre host Paris FC in the Ligue 1 on Sat 7 Nov, 16:15 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. Our prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC is Paris FC to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

AJ Auxerre form

AJ Auxerre have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Paris FC form

Paris FC have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AJ Auxerre won 0, Paris FC won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished AJ Auxerre 0, Paris FC 0.

Our call

We expect AJ Auxerre to score about 1.2 goals and Paris FC about 1.4. That points to Paris FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is AJ Auxerre to win at 3.60.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Auxerre	Paris FC
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	10
Draws	6	6
Losses	7	4
Goals scored	29	34
Goals conceded	32	20
Scored per game	1.4	1.7
Conceded per game	1.6	1.0
Home record	5W 3D 2L	8W 1D 1L
Away record	2W 3D 5L	2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AJ Auxerre to win	28%	3.52	3.60	+2.3%
A Draw	27%	3.77	3.75	-0.4%
Paris FC to win	42%	2.37	1.91	-19.6%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.69	-17.1%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.22	2.05	-7.6%
AJ Auxerre +0.5	49%	2.06	1.80	-12.6%
Paris FC -0.5	46%	2.19	1.80	-18.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.07
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.76
Both teams to score	53%	1.88
AJ Auxerre or Draw	57%	1.75
Paris FC or Draw	70%	1.42
AJ Auxerre to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.94
Paris FC to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.96
AJ Auxerre clean sheet	24%	4.25
Paris FC clean sheet	31%	3.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

0-19.9%

1-29.0%

0-08.1%

1-07.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC?

Our prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC is Paris FC to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect AJ Auxerre to score 1.2 goals and Paris FC 1.4.

Will both teams score in AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of AJ Auxerre last 20 games and 12 of Paris FC last 20.

How are AJ Auxerre playing?

How are Paris FC playing?

What happened when AJ Auxerre and Paris FC last met?

It ended AJ Auxerre 0, Paris FC 0. In the last 2 meetings AJ Auxerre won 0 and Paris FC won 0.

What is the best bet for AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Auxerre against Paris FC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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