Predictions › Netherlands › Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag

EredivisieSun 22 Nov, 13:30 Netherlands time

Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag prediction

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax AmsterdamHome

2.91 : 1.03

expected goals

ADO Den HaagAway

75%Ajax

15%Draw

10%ADO Den Haag

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Ajax Amsterdam to win
Chance: 75%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Ajax Amsterdam 2.9, ADO Den Haag 1.0
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ajax Amsterdam to win and both score

41% chanceFair price 2.471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Ajax Amsterdam 75%, the draw 15% and ADO Den Haag 10%. The bookmakers agree and make Ajax Amsterdam the favourite at 1.17.
2
Recent form
Ajax Amsterdam took 13 points from their last 5 games and ADO Den Haag took 7 from 5. Ajax Amsterdam come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Ajax Amsterdam won 4 of their last 11 games at home. ADO Den Haag won 0 of their last 6 on the road.
4
Goals
Ajax Amsterdam score 2.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. ADO Den Haag score 1.3 and let in 2.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Ajax Amsterdam games and 8 of ADO Den Haag games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Ajaxrecent form+6%
ADO Den Haagrecent form-1%

Ajax form D W W W WADO Den Haag form W L L L WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag: Ajax Amsterdam are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ajax Amsterdam host ADO Den Haag in the Eredivisie on Sun 22 Nov, 13:30 at Johan Cruijff Arena. Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.32.

Ajax Amsterdam form

Ajax Amsterdam have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, W, newest first.

ADO Den Haag form

ADO Den Haag have 2 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 12 games, with 16 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score about 2.9 goals and ADO Den Haag about 1.0. That points to Ajax Amsterdam to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Ajax Amsterdam to win and both score at 2.47.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Ajax	ADO Den Haag
Games played	20	12
Wins	10	2
Draws	7	3
Losses	3	7
Goals scored	47	16
Goals conceded	23	25
Scored per game	2.4	1.3
Conceded per game	1.1	2.1
Home record	4W 5D 2L	2W 1D 3L
Away record	6W 2D 1L	0W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Both teams scored	70%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	67%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Ajax Amsterdam to win	76%	1.32	1.17	-11.4%
A Draw	14%	7.37	7.50	+1.8%
ADO Den Haag to win	10%	10.53	11.00	+4.5%
Over 3.5 goals	51%	1.98	1.67	-15.7%
Under 3.5 goals	43%	2.35	2.05	-12.7%
Ajax Amsterdam -2.5	40%	2.51	2.10	-16.3%
ADO Den Haag +2.5	53%	1.87	1.61	-14.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	91%	1.10
Over 2.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 3.5 goals	56%	1.80
Both teams to score	61%	1.64
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw	90%	1.11
ADO Den Haag or Draw	25%	4.07
Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5	62%	1.62
ADO Den Haag to win and Over 2.5	7%	13.65
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet	36%	2.80
ADO Den Haag clean sheet	5%	18.44

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-18.5%

2-08.2%

3-18.2%

3-08.0%

1-16.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag?

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 3-1. We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score 2.9 goals and ADO Den Haag 1.0.

Will both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Ajax Amsterdam last 20 games and 9 of ADO Den Haag last 12.

How are Ajax Amsterdam playing?

How are ADO Den Haag playing?

What is the best bet for Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ajax against ADO Den Haag. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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