Predictions › Netherlands › Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar

EredivisieSat 31 Oct, 20:00 Netherlands time

Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax AmsterdamHome

1.69 : 1.34

expected goals

AZ AlkmaarAway

45%Ajax

25%Draw

30%AZ Alkmaar

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: Ajax Amsterdam to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Ajax Amsterdam 1.7, AZ Alkmaar 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Ajax Amsterdam 45%, the draw 25% and AZ Alkmaar 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Ajax Amsterdam took 8 points from their last 5 games and AZ Alkmaar took 7 from 5. Ajax Amsterdam come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Ajax Amsterdam won 3 of their last 11 games at home. AZ Alkmaar won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Ajax Amsterdam score 2.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. AZ Alkmaar score 1.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Ajax Amsterdam games and 11 of AZ Alkmaar games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Ajax Amsterdam won 0 and AZ Alkmaar won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended AZ Alkmaar 1, Ajax Amsterdam 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Ajax form D L D D WAZ Alkmaar form D W L W LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: Ajax Amsterdam shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ajax Amsterdam host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie on Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena. Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Ajax Amsterdam form

Ajax Amsterdam have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 45 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

AZ Alkmaar form

AZ Alkmaar have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Ajax Amsterdam won 0, AZ Alkmaar won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished AZ Alkmaar 1, Ajax Amsterdam 1.

Our call

We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score about 1.7 goals and AZ Alkmaar about 1.3. That points to Ajax Amsterdam to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5 at 3.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Ajax	AZ Alkmaar
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	9
Draws	7	7
Losses	4	4
Goals scored	45	35
Goals conceded	22	26
Scored per game	2.3	1.8
Conceded per game	1.1	1.3
Home record	3W 5D 3L	6W 4D 0L
Away record	6W 2D 1L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	35%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.78
Both teams to score	61%	1.64
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw	70%	1.43
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	55%	1.82
Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5	31%	3.27
AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.06
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet	26%	3.83
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	18%	5.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%

2-19.2%

1-07.5%

1-27.3%

2-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score 1.7 goals and AZ Alkmaar 1.3.

Will both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Ajax Amsterdam last 20 games and 10 of AZ Alkmaar last 20.

How are Ajax Amsterdam playing?

How are AZ Alkmaar playing?

What happened when Ajax Amsterdam and AZ Alkmaar last met?

It ended AZ Alkmaar 1, Ajax Amsterdam 1. In the last 2 meetings Ajax Amsterdam won 0 and AZ Alkmaar won 1.

What is the best bet for Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ajax against AZ Alkmaar. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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