Predictions › Netherlands › Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen

EredivisieSat 10 Oct, 19:00 Netherlands time

Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax AmsterdamHome

2.51 : 1.30

expected goals

NEC NijmegenAway

63%Ajax

19%Draw

18%NEC

Eagle safe pickAjax Amsterdam or Draw

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.25.

Prediction: Ajax Amsterdam to win
Chance: 63%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Ajax Amsterdam 2.5, NEC Nijmegen 1.3
Best bet: Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.25
Both teams to score: 67%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Ajax Amsterdam or Draw

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ajax Amsterdam to win and both score

36% chanceFair price 2.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Ajax Amsterdam 63%, the draw 19% and NEC Nijmegen 18%. The bookmakers agree and make Ajax Amsterdam the favourite at 1.30.
2
Recent form
Ajax Amsterdam took 10 points from their last 5 games and NEC Nijmegen took 2 from 5. Ajax Amsterdam come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Ajax Amsterdam won 3 of their last 11 games at home. NEC Nijmegen won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Ajax Amsterdam score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.1. NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Ajax Amsterdam games and 13 of NEC Nijmegen games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Ajax Amsterdam won 0 and NEC Nijmegen won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Ajax Amsterdam 1, NEC Nijmegen 1.
6
The safest bet
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Ajaxrecent form+3%
NECrecent form-4%

Ajax form D W W L WNEC form D L L D LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen: Ajax Amsterdam are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ajax Amsterdam host NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie on Sat 10 Oct, 19:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena. Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.25.

Ajax Amsterdam form

Ajax Amsterdam have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

NEC Nijmegen form

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Ajax Amsterdam won 0, NEC Nijmegen won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Ajax Amsterdam 1, NEC Nijmegen 1.

Our call

We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score about 2.5 goals and NEC Nijmegen about 1.3. That points to Ajax Amsterdam to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.25. Our bold bet is Ajax Amsterdam to win and both score at 2.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Ajax	NEC
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	6
Draws	8	8
Losses	4	6
Goals scored	40	32
Goals conceded	21	33
Scored per game	2.0	1.6
Conceded per game	1.1	1.6
Home record	3W 5D 3L	2W 5D 3L
Away record	5W 3D 1L	4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Ajax Amsterdam to win	62%	1.61	1.30	-19.3%
A Draw	19%	5.37	5.75	+7.0%
NEC Nijmegen to win	18%	5.67	7.00	+23.4%
Over 3.5 goals	49%	2.03	1.74	-14.3%
Under 3.5 goals	44%	2.25	1.91	-15.3%
Ajax Amsterdam -1.5	46%	2.15	1.71	-20.3%
NEC Nijmegen +1.5	47%	2.12	1.91	-10.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	90%	1.11
Over 2.5 goals	73%	1.36
Over 3.5 goals	53%	1.89
Both teams to score	67%	1.49
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw	82%	1.22
NEC Nijmegen or Draw	37%	2.73
Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5	51%	1.95
NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.43
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet	27%	3.66
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	8%	12.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.1%

1-17.7%

3-17.6%

2-07.0%

2-25.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 3-1. We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score 2.5 goals and NEC Nijmegen 1.3.

Will both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?

Both teams to score has a 67% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Ajax Amsterdam last 20 games and 16 of NEC Nijmegen last 20.

How are Ajax Amsterdam playing?

How are NEC Nijmegen playing?

What happened when Ajax Amsterdam and NEC Nijmegen last met?

It ended Ajax Amsterdam 1, NEC Nijmegen 1. In the last 2 meetings Ajax Amsterdam won 0 and NEC Nijmegen won 0.

What is the best bet for Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?

Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ajax against NEC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.