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Predictions › Saudi Arabia › Al Ahli vs Al Nassr
Saudi Pro LeagueThu 15 Oct, 18:00 Saudi Arabia time

Al Ahli vs Al Nassr prediction

King Abdullah Sports City

Al AhliHome
2.19 : 1.29
expected goals
Al NassrAway
57%Al Ahli
21%Draw
21%Al Nassr
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Al Ahli vs Al Nassr is Al Ahli to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction
Al Ahli to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Al Ahli 2.2, Al Nassr 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score
65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Al Ahli to win and Over 2.5
41% chanceFair price 2.431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Al Ahli 57%, the draw 21% and Al Nassr 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Al Ahli took 6 points from their last 5 games and Al Nassr took 10 from 5. Al Nassr come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Al Ahli won 9 of their last 9 games at home. Al Nassr won 7 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Al Ahli score 2.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Al Nassr score 2.7 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Al Ahli games and 14 of Al Nassr games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Al Ahli won 1 and Al Nassr won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Al Nassr 2, Al Ahli 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Al Ahli form L D W L WAl Nassr form L D W L WHome edge in this league 13% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: Al Ahli are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Al Ahli host Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League on Thu 15 Oct, 18:00 at King Abdullah Sports City. Our prediction for Al Ahli vs Al Nassr is Al Ahli to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Al Ahli form

Al Ahli have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Al Nassr form

Al Nassr have 16 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 54 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Al Ahli won 1, Al Nassr won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Al Nassr 2, Al Ahli 0.

Our call

We expect Al Ahli to score about 2.2 goals and Al Nassr about 1.3. That points to Al Ahli to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Al Ahli to win and Over 2.5 at 2.43.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Al AhliAl Nassr
Games played2020
Wins1416
Draws12
Losses52
Goals scored4754
Goals conceded2117
Scored per game2.42.7
Conceded per game1.10.8
Home record9W 0D 0L9W 1D 0L
Away record5W 1D 5L7W 1D 2L
Clean sheets40%45%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals75%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals87%1.15
Over 2.5 goals67%1.48
Over 3.5 goals46%2.18
Both teams to score65%1.54
Al Ahli or Draw79%1.27
Al Nassr or Draw43%2.35
Al Ahli to win and Over 2.544%2.29
Al Nassr to win and Over 2.515%6.54
Al Ahli clean sheet28%3.62
Al Nassr clean sheet11%8.93

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.5%
1-19.2%
2-07.4%
3-17.0%
1-06.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Saudi Pro League

Ronaldo Demands Lifetime Bans After Fans Taunt Ruben Neves

Cristiano Ronaldo wants lifetime stadium bans for fans who taunted Ruben Neves about his late Portugal teammate Diogo Jota.

13 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?

Our prediction for Al Ahli vs Al Nassr is Al Ahli to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Al Ahli to score 2.2 goals and Al Nassr 1.3.

Will both teams score in Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Al Ahli last 20 games and 11 of Al Nassr last 20.

How are Al Ahli playing?

Al Ahli have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Al Nassr playing?

Al Nassr have 16 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 54 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Al Ahli and Al Nassr last met?

It ended Al Nassr 2, Al Ahli 0. In the last 2 meetings Al Ahli won 1 and Al Nassr won 1.

What is the best bet for Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Al Ahli against Al Nassr. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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