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Predictions › Saudi Arabia › Al Fateh vs Al Ahli
Saudi Pro LeagueFri 9 Oct, 14:55 Saudi Arabia time

Al Fateh vs Al Ahli prediction

Al Fateh Club Stadium

Al FatehHome
1.12 : 1.36
expected goals
Al AhliAway
30%Al Fateh
28%Draw
42%Al Ahli
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Al Fateh vs Al Ahli is Al Ahli to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Al Ahli to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Al Fateh 1.1, Al Ahli 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Al Fateh 30%, the draw 28% and Al Ahli 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Al Fateh took 3 points from their last 5 games and Al Ahli took 6 from 5. Al Ahli come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Al Fateh won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Al Ahli won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Al Fateh score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Al Ahli score 2.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Al Fateh games and 15 of Al Ahli games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Al Fateh won 1 and Al Ahli won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Al Ahli 3, Al Fateh 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Al Fatehrecent form-3%
Al Fateh form L L D D DAl Ahli form L D W L WHome edge in this league 13% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Al Fateh vs Al Ahli: Al Ahli shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Al Fateh host Al Ahli in the Saudi Pro League on Fri 9 Oct, 14:55 at Al Fateh Club Stadium. Our prediction for Al Fateh vs Al Ahli is Al Ahli to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Al Fateh form

Al Fateh have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Al Ahli form

Al Ahli have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Al Fateh won 1, Al Ahli won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Al Ahli 3, Al Fateh 1.

Our call

We expect Al Fateh to score about 1.1 goals and Al Ahli about 1.4. That points to Al Ahli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Al FatehAl Ahli
Games played2020
Wins314
Draws71
Losses105
Goals scored1947
Goals conceded2921
Scored per game0.92.4
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record3W 3D 3L9W 0D 0L
Away record0W 4D 7L5W 1D 5L
Clean sheets25%40%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals40%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.40
Over 2.5 goals45%2.22
Over 3.5 goals24%4.20
Both teams to score51%1.97
Al Fateh or Draw58%1.71
Al Ahli or Draw70%1.43
Al Fateh to win and Over 2.516%6.20
Al Ahli to win and Over 2.523%4.31
Al Fateh clean sheet26%3.90
Al Ahli clean sheet33%3.06

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%
0-110.6%
0-09.1%
1-28.7%
1-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Al Fateh vs Al Ahli?

Our prediction for Al Fateh vs Al Ahli is Al Ahli to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Al Fateh vs Al Ahli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Al Fateh to score 1.1 goals and Al Ahli 1.4.

Will both teams score in Al Fateh vs Al Ahli?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Al Fateh last 20 games and 10 of Al Ahli last 20.

How are Al Fateh playing?

Al Fateh have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, D, newest first.

How are Al Ahli playing?

Al Ahli have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Al Fateh and Al Ahli last met?

It ended Al Ahli 3, Al Fateh 1. In the last 2 meetings Al Fateh won 1 and Al Ahli won 1.

What is the best bet for Al Fateh vs Al Ahli?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Al Fateh against Al Ahli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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