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Predictions › Saudi Arabia › Al Fayha vs Al Ahli
Saudi Pro LeagueMon 19 Oct, 15:05 Saudi Arabia time

Al Fayha vs Al Ahli prediction

Al Majma'a Sport City Stadium

Al FayhaHome
1.22 : 1.57
expected goals
Al AhliAway
29%Al Fayha
26%Draw
45%Al Ahli
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Al Fayha vs Al Ahli is Al Ahli to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Al Ahli to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Al Fayha 1.2, Al Ahli 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Al Ahli to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Al Fayha 29%, the draw 26% and Al Ahli 45%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Al Fayha took 6 points from their last 5 games and Al Ahli took 9 from 5. Al Ahli come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Al Fayha won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Al Ahli won 6 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Al Fayha score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.5. Al Ahli score 2.4 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Al Fayha games and 15 of Al Ahli games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Al Fayha won 0 and Al Ahli won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Al Fayha 1, Al Ahli 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Al Ahlirecent form-1%
  • Al Fayharest between games-3%
  • Al Ahlirest between games-5%
Al Fayha form D L D W DAl Ahli form D L D W LHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Al Fayha vs Al Ahli: Al Ahli shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Al Fayha host Al Ahli in the Saudi Pro League on Mon 19 Oct, 15:05 at Al Majma'a Sport City Stadium. Our prediction for Al Fayha vs Al Ahli is Al Ahli to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Al Fayha form

Al Fayha have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Al Ahli form

Al Ahli have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Al Fayha won 0, Al Ahli won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Al Fayha 1, Al Ahli 1.

Our call

We expect Al Fayha to score about 1.2 goals and Al Ahli about 1.6. That points to Al Ahli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Al Ahli to win and Over 2.5 at 3.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Al FayhaAl Ahli
Games played2020
Wins514
Draws61
Losses95
Goals scored2547
Goals conceded3020
Scored per game1.32.4
Conceded per game1.51.0
Home record3W 3D 4L8W 0D 0L
Away record2W 3D 5L6W 1D 5L
Clean sheets20%45%
Both teams scored55%45%
Over 2.5 goals55%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.89
Over 3.5 goals31%3.26
Both teams to score57%1.77
Al Fayha or Draw55%1.81
Al Ahli or Draw71%1.41
Al Fayha to win and Over 2.518%5.68
Al Ahli to win and Over 2.528%3.54
Al Fayha clean sheet21%4.81
Al Ahli clean sheet29%3.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-29.2%
0-18.9%
0-27.6%
2-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Al Fayha vs Al Ahli?

Our prediction for Al Fayha vs Al Ahli is Al Ahli to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Al Fayha vs Al Ahli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Al Fayha to score 1.2 goals and Al Ahli 1.6.

Will both teams score in Al Fayha vs Al Ahli?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Al Fayha last 20 games and 9 of Al Ahli last 20.

How are Al Fayha playing?

Al Fayha have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Al Ahli playing?

Al Ahli have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Al Fayha and Al Ahli last met?

It ended Al Fayha 1, Al Ahli 1. In the last 2 meetings Al Fayha won 0 and Al Ahli won 1.

What is the best bet for Al Fayha vs Al Ahli?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Al Fayha against Al Ahli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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