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Predictions › Saudi Arabia › Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah
Saudi Pro LeagueFri 9 Oct, 18:00 Saudi Arabia time

Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah prediction

Al-Awwal Park

Al NassrHome
1.66 : 1.03
expected goals
Al DiriyahAway
51%Al Nassr
26%Draw
23%Al Diriyah
Eagle safe pickAl Nassr or Draw
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah is Al Nassr to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Al Nassr or Draw at 1.31.

Prediction
Al Nassr to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Al Nassr 1.7, Al Diriyah 1.0
Best bet
Al Nassr or Draw at 1.31
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Al Nassr or Draw
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Al Nassr to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.311 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Al Nassr 51%, the draw 26% and Al Diriyah 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Al Nassr took 10 points from their last 5 games and Al Diriyah took 8 from 5. Al Nassr come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Al Nassr won 9 of their last 10 games at home. Al Diriyah won 3 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Al Nassr score 2.7 goals a game and let in 0.8. Al Diriyah score 1.0 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Al Nassr games and 2 of Al Diriyah games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Al Nassr or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Al Diriyahrecent form+1%
Al Nassr form L D W L WAl Diriyah form D W L W DHome edge in this league 13% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah: Al Nassr are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Al Nassr host Al Diriyah in the Saudi Pro League on Fri 9 Oct, 18:00 at Al-Awwal Park. Our prediction for Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah is Al Nassr to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Al Nassr or Draw at 1.31.

Al Nassr form

Al Nassr have 16 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 54 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Al Diriyah form

Al Diriyah have 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 7 games, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Al Nassr to score about 1.7 goals and Al Diriyah about 1.0. That points to Al Nassr to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Al Nassr or Draw at 1.31. Our bold bet is Al Nassr to win and Over 2.5 at 3.31.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Al NassrAl Diriyah
Games played207
Wins163
Draws22
Losses22
Goals scored547
Goals conceded175
Scored per game2.71.0
Conceded per game0.80.7
Home record9W 1D 0L0W 2D 2L
Away record7W 1D 2L3W 0D 0L
Clean sheets45%43%
Both teams scored55%29%
Over 2.5 goals70%29%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.32
Over 2.5 goals50%1.99
Over 3.5 goals28%3.53
Both teams to score53%1.89
Al Nassr or Draw77%1.30
Al Diriyah or Draw49%2.05
Al Nassr to win and Over 2.531%3.19
Al Diriyah to win and Over 2.513%7.70
Al Nassr clean sheet36%2.81
Al Diriyah clean sheet19%5.24

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
1-010.6%
2-19.6%
2-09.3%
0-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Saudi Pro League

Ronaldo Demands Lifetime Bans After Fans Taunt Ruben Neves

Cristiano Ronaldo wants lifetime stadium bans for fans who taunted Ruben Neves about his late Portugal teammate Diogo Jota.

13 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah?

Our prediction for Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah is Al Nassr to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Al Nassr or Draw at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Al Nassr to score 1.7 goals and Al Diriyah 1.0.

Will both teams score in Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Al Nassr last 20 games and 2 of Al Diriyah last 7.

How are Al Nassr playing?

Al Nassr have 16 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 54 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Al Diriyah playing?

Al Diriyah have 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 7 games, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah?

Al Nassr or Draw at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Al Nassr against Al Diriyah. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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