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Predictions › Saudi Arabia › Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly
Saudi Pro LeagueMon 19 Oct, 18:00 Saudi Arabia time

Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly prediction

Al-Shabab Club Stadium

Al ShababHome
1.72 : 1.59
expected goals
Al FaisalyAway
41%Al Shabab
24%Draw
35%Al Faisaly
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly is Al Shabab to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Al Shabab to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Al Shabab 1.7, Al Faisaly 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
66%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Al Shabab to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Al Shabab 41%, the draw 24% and Al Faisaly 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Al Shabab took 3 points from their last 5 games and Al Faisaly took 3 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Al Shabab won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Al Faisaly won 0 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Al Shabab score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.9. Al Faisaly score 0.7 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Al Shabab games and 3 of Al Faisaly games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Al Shababrecent form-3%
  • Al Faisalyrecent form-3%
  • Al Shababrest between games-3%
  • Al Faisalyrest between games-3%
Al Shabab form D L L D DAl Faisaly form L D D L DHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly: Al Shabab shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Al Shabab host Al Faisaly in the Saudi Pro League on Mon 19 Oct, 18:00 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Our prediction for Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly is Al Shabab to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Al Shabab form

Al Shabab have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, D, newest first.

Al Faisaly form

Al Faisaly have 0 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 7 games, with 5 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Al Shabab to score about 1.7 goals and Al Faisaly about 1.6. That points to Al Shabab to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Al Shabab to win and Over 2.5 at 3.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Al ShababAl Faisaly
Games played207
Wins40
Draws83
Losses84
Goals scored295
Goals conceded3713
Scored per game1.40.7
Conceded per game1.91.9
Home record3W 3D 5L0W 2D 2L
Away record1W 5D 3L0W 1D 2L
Clean sheets15%29%
Both teams scored75%57%
Over 2.5 goals55%43%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals85%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.55
Over 3.5 goals42%2.36
Both teams to score66%1.51
Al Shabab or Draw65%1.55
Al Faisaly or Draw59%1.68
Al Shabab to win and Over 2.530%3.38
Al Faisaly to win and Over 2.525%3.92
Al Shabab clean sheet20%4.93
Al Faisaly clean sheet18%5.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%
2-18.6%
1-27.9%
2-26.8%
1-05.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly?

Our prediction for Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly is Al Shabab to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Al Shabab to score 1.7 goals and Al Faisaly 1.6.

Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly?

Both teams to score has a 66% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Al Shabab last 20 games and 4 of Al Faisaly last 7.

How are Al Shabab playing?

Al Shabab have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, D, newest first.

How are Al Faisaly playing?

Al Faisaly have 0 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 7 games, with 5 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Al Shabab vs Al Faisaly?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Al Shabab against Al Faisaly. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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