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Predictions › Turkey › Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB
Super LigSat 10 Oct, 13:00 Turkey time

Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB prediction

Kirbiyik Holding Stadyumu

AlanyasporHome
1.45 : 0.95
expected goals
Erzurum BBAway
48%Alanyaspor
28%Draw
24%Erzurum
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB is Alanyaspor to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Alanyaspor to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Alanyaspor 1.4, Erzurum BB 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alanyaspor to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alanyaspor 48%, the draw 28% and Erzurum BB 24%. The bookmakers agree and make Alanyaspor the favourite at 2.00.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alanyaspor took 10 points from their last 5 games and Erzurum BB took 7 from 5. Alanyaspor come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alanyaspor won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Erzurum BB won 0 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alanyaspor score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Erzurum BB score 0.5 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Alanyaspor games and 3 of Erzurum BB games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alanyasporrecent form+3%
Alanyaspor form W D W L WErzurum form W L W D LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB: Alanyaspor are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alanyaspor host Erzurum BB in the Super Lig on Sat 10 Oct, 13:00 at Kirbiyik Holding Stadyumu. Our prediction for Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB is Alanyaspor to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Alanyaspor form

Alanyaspor have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Erzurum BB form

Erzurum BB have 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 6 games, with 3 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Alanyaspor to score about 1.4 goals and Erzurum BB about 0.9. That points to Alanyaspor to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Alanyaspor to win and Over 2.5 at 3.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AlanyasporErzurum
Games played206
Wins62
Draws81
Losses63
Goals scored293
Goals conceded2511
Scored per game1.40.5
Conceded per game1.31.8
Home record4W 3D 2L2W 0D 1L
Away record2W 5D 4L0W 1D 2L
Clean sheets25%33%
Both teams scored70%17%
Over 2.5 goals60%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Alanyaspor to win45%2.222.00-9.9%
A Draw27%3.683.20-12.9%
Erzurum BB to win23%4.303.75-12.8%
Over 2.5 goals39%2.552.20-13.9%
Under 2.5 goals55%1.831.57-14.2%
Alanyaspor -0.545%2.231.91-14.5%
Erzurum BB +0.549%2.041.74-14.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.43
Over 2.5 goals43%2.32
Over 3.5 goals22%4.52
Both teams to score48%2.10
Alanyaspor or Draw76%1.31
Erzurum BB or Draw52%1.93
Alanyaspor to win and Over 2.526%3.83
Erzurum BB to win and Over 2.512%8.40
Alanyaspor clean sheet39%2.58
Erzurum BB clean sheet23%4.28

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
1-012.4%
0-09.8%
2-09.6%
2-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB?

Our prediction for Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB is Alanyaspor to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Alanyaspor to score 1.4 goals and Erzurum BB 0.9.

Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Alanyaspor last 20 games and 1 of Erzurum BB last 6.

How are Alanyaspor playing?

Alanyaspor have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Erzurum BB playing?

Erzurum BB have 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 6 games, with 3 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alanyaspor against Erzurum. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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