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Predictions › Spain › Alavés vs Atlético Madrid
LaLigaSat 10 Oct, 14:15 Spain time

Alavés vs Atlético Madrid prediction

Mendizorrotza

AlavésHome
1.17 : 1.60
expected goals
Atlético MadridAway
27%Alavés
26%Draw
47%Atlético
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Atlético Madrid to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Alavés 1.2, Atlético Madrid 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alavés to win
26% chancePrice 4.10+7.9% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alavés 27%, the draw 26% and Atlético Madrid 47%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético Madrid the favourite at 1.80.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alavés took 7 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Madrid took 9 from 5. Atlético Madrid come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alavés won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Atlético Madrid won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alavés score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.5. Atlético Madrid score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Alavés games and 13 of Atlético Madrid games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Alavés won 0 and Atlético Madrid won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Madrid 1, Alavés 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atléticorecent form+1%
Alavés form D L L W WAtlético form W W W L LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alavés vs Atlético Madrid: Atlético Madrid are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alavés host Atlético Madrid in the LaLiga on Sat 10 Oct, 14:15 at Mendizorrotza. Our prediction for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Alavés form

Alavés have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Atlético Madrid form

Atlético Madrid have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Alavés won 0, Atlético Madrid won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Madrid 1, Alavés 0.

Our call

We expect Alavés to score about 1.2 goals and Atlético Madrid about 1.6. That points to Atlético Madrid to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Alavés to win at 4.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AlavésAtlético
Games played2020
Wins710
Draws62
Losses78
Goals scored3233
Goals conceded3027
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game1.51.4
Home record5W 2D 3L5W 2D 2L
Away record2W 4D 4L5W 0D 6L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Alavés to win26%3.804.10+7.9%
A Draw25%3.933.65-7.2%
Atlético Madrid to win44%2.291.80-21.3%
Over 2.5 goals49%2.061.80-12.6%
Under 2.5 goals45%2.211.91-13.8%
Alavés +0.546%2.161.91-11.7%
Atlético Madrid -0.547%2.111.74-17.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.91
Over 3.5 goals30%3.31
Both teams to score56%1.79
Alavés or Draw53%1.88
Atlético Madrid or Draw73%1.37
Alavés to win and Over 2.516%6.16
Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.529%3.40
Alavés clean sheet20%4.97
Atlético Madrid clean sheet31%3.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%
1-29.4%
0-19.3%
0-28.0%
0-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Mourinho Blames Referees After Real Madrid Fall Behind Barcelona

Jose Mourinho targeted the officials after Real Madrid lost the derby, while Arsenal suffered a shock defeat at Brighton.

21 Sept 2026
LaLiga

Simeone Expresses Great Respect For Mourinho Before Derby

Diego Simeone and José Mourinho will face each other in Sunday's Madrid Derby for the first time since 2014.

19 Sept 2026
LaLiga

Mourinho Questions Rivals' Penalty Luck Ahead of Elche Clash

Real Madrid boss José Mourinho pointed out penalty decisions going the way of rivals Barcelona and Atlético Madrid.

14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?

Our prediction for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Alavés to score 1.2 goals and Atlético Madrid 1.6.

Will both teams score in Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Alavés last 20 games and 11 of Atlético Madrid last 20.

How are Alavés playing?

Alavés have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Atlético Madrid playing?

Atlético Madrid have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Alavés and Atlético Madrid last met?

It ended Atlético Madrid 1, Alavés 0. In the last 1 meeting Alavés won 0 and Atlético Madrid won 1.

What is the best bet for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alavés against Atlético. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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