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Predictions › Spain › Alavés vs Málaga
LaLigaFri 23 Oct, 19:00 Spain time

Alavés vs Málaga prediction

Mendizorrotza

AlavésHome
1.75 : 0.79
expected goals
MálagaAway
60%Alavés
25%Draw
16%Málaga
Eagle safe pickAlavés or Draw
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alavés vs Málaga is Alavés to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Alavés or Draw at 1.22.

Prediction
Alavés to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Alavés 1.8, Málaga 0.8
Best bet
Alavés or Draw at 1.22
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Alavés or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alavés to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.031 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alavés 60%, the draw 25% and Málaga 16%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alavés took 4 points from their last 5 games and Málaga took 3 from 5. Alavés come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alavés won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Málaga won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alavés score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.5. Málaga score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Alavés games and 8 of Málaga games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Alavés or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alavésrecent form-1%
  • Málagarecent form-3%
Alavés form D D L L WMálaga form D L L D DHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alavés vs Málaga: Alavés are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alavés host Málaga in the LaLiga on Fri 23 Oct, 19:00 at Mendizorrotza. Our prediction for Alavés vs Málaga is Alavés to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Alavés or Draw at 1.22.

Alavés form

Alavés have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Málaga form

Málaga have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Alavés to score about 1.8 goals and Málaga about 0.8. That points to Alavés to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Alavés or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Alavés to win and Over 2.5 at 3.03.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AlavésMálaga
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws67
Losses76
Goals scored3327
Goals conceded3026
Scored per game1.61.4
Conceded per game1.51.3
Home record5W 2D 4L2W 6D 2L
Away record2W 4D 3L5W 1D 4L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored70%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.38
Over 2.5 goals47%2.15
Over 3.5 goals25%4.00
Both teams to score46%2.19
Alavés or Draw84%1.19
Málaga or Draw40%2.47
Alavés to win and Over 2.534%2.92
Málaga to win and Over 2.58%12.74
Alavés clean sheet45%2.20
Málaga clean sheet17%5.74

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.2%
2-012.1%
1-111.6%
2-19.5%
0-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?

Our prediction for Alavés vs Málaga is Alavés to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Alavés or Draw at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Alavés vs Málaga?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Alavés to score 1.8 goals and Málaga 0.8.

Will both teams score in Alavés vs Málaga?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Alavés last 20 games and 12 of Málaga last 20.

How are Alavés playing?

Alavés have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Málaga playing?

Málaga have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Alavés vs Málaga?

Alavés or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alavés against Málaga. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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