Predictions › Spain › Albacete vs Eibar

LaLiga 2Sat 3 Oct, 12:00 Spain time

Albacete vs Eibar prediction

Carlos Belmonte

AlbaceteHome

1.11 : 1.33

expected goals

EibarAway

30%Albacete

29%Draw

41%Eibar

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Albacete vs Eibar is Eibar to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Eibar to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Albacete 1.1, Eibar 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Eibar to win

38% chancePrice 2.601 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Albacete 30%, the draw 29% and Eibar 41%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Albacete the favourite at 2.60, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Albacete took 1 point from their last 5 games and Eibar took 15 from 5. Eibar come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Albacete won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Eibar won 7 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Albacete score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Eibar score 1.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Albacete games and 12 of Eibar games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Albacete won 0 and Eibar won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Albacete 0, Eibar 3.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Albaceterecent form-6%
Eibarrecent form+7%
Albaceterest between games-2%
Eibarrest between games-5%

Albacete form L L D L LEibar form W W W W WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Albacete vs Eibar: Eibar shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Albacete host Eibar in the LaLiga 2 on Sat 3 Oct, 12:00 at Carlos Belmonte. Our prediction for Albacete vs Eibar is Eibar to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Albacete form

Albacete have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Eibar form

Eibar have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Albacete won 0, Eibar won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Albacete 0, Eibar 3.

Our call

We expect Albacete to score about 1.1 goals and Eibar about 1.3. That points to Eibar to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Eibar to win at 2.60.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Albacete	Eibar
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	14
Draws	3	2
Losses	10	4
Goals scored	27	35
Goals conceded	28	16
Scored per game	1.4	1.8
Conceded per game	1.4	0.8
Home record	4W 1D 5L	7W 1D 2L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	7W 1D 2L
Clean sheets	10%	60%
Both teams scored	65%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Albacete to win	29%	3.46	2.60	-24.8%
A Draw	28%	3.63	3.20	-11.7%
Eibar to win	38%	2.64	2.60	-1.4%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.30	1.91	-17.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	1.99	1.74	-12.5%
Albacete -0.5	33%	3.04	2.45	-19.3%
Eibar +0.5	65%	1.55	1.44	-6.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.41
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.27
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.35
Both teams to score	50%	2.00
Albacete or Draw	59%	1.70
Eibar or Draw	70%	1.43
Albacete to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.25
Eibar to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.45
Albacete clean sheet	26%	3.79
Eibar clean sheet	33%	3.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

0-110.8%

0-09.5%

1-08.9%

1-28.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Albacete vs Eibar?

Our prediction for Albacete vs Eibar is Eibar to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Albacete vs Eibar?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Albacete to score 1.1 goals and Eibar 1.3.

Will both teams score in Albacete vs Eibar?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Albacete last 20 games and 8 of Eibar last 20.

How are Albacete playing?

How are Eibar playing?

What happened when Albacete and Eibar last met?

It ended Albacete 0, Eibar 3. In the last 2 meetings Albacete won 0 and Eibar won 2.

What is the best bet for Albacete vs Eibar?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Albacete against Eibar. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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