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Predictions › Spain › Albacete vs Eldense
LaLiga 2Sun 25 Oct, 15:15 Spain time

Albacete vs Eldense prediction

Carlos Belmonte

AlbaceteHome
1.17 : 0.96
expected goals
EldenseAway
40%Albacete
31%Draw
29%Eldense
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Albacete vs Eldense is Albacete to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Albacete to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Albacete 1.2, Eldense 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.071 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Albacete 40%, the draw 31% and Eldense 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Albacete took 1 point from their last 5 games and Eldense took 9 from 5. Eldense come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Albacete won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Eldense won 1 of their last 4 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Albacete score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.8. Eldense score 1.1 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Albacete games and 5 of Eldense games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Albaceterecent form-4%
Albacete form D L L L DEldense form D W L L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Albacete vs Eldense: Albacete shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Albacete host Eldense in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 25 Oct, 15:15 at Carlos Belmonte. Our prediction for Albacete vs Eldense is Albacete to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Albacete form

Albacete have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Eldense form

Eldense have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 9 games, with 10 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 3 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Albacete to score about 1.2 goals and Eldense about 1.0. That points to Albacete to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.07.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AlbaceteEldense
Games played209
Wins53
Draws32
Losses124
Goals scored2210
Goals conceded3511
Scored per game1.11.1
Conceded per game1.81.2
Home record3W 1D 6L2W 2D 1L
Away record2W 2D 6L1W 0D 3L
Clean sheets5%22%
Both teams scored65%44%
Over 2.5 goals60%56%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals64%1.57
Over 2.5 goals36%2.77
Over 3.5 goals17%5.93
Both teams to score44%2.30
Albacete or Draw71%1.41
Eldense or Draw60%1.66
Albacete to win and Over 2.519%5.37
Eldense to win and Over 2.513%7.61
Albacete clean sheet38%2.62
Eldense clean sheet31%3.23

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%
1-013.0%
0-012.6%
0-110.6%
2-08.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Albacete vs Eldense?

Our prediction for Albacete vs Eldense is Albacete to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Albacete vs Eldense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Albacete to score 1.2 goals and Eldense 1.0.

Will both teams score in Albacete vs Eldense?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Albacete last 20 games and 4 of Eldense last 9.

How are Albacete playing?

Albacete have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are Eldense playing?

Eldense have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 9 games, with 10 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 3 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Albacete vs Eldense?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Albacete against Eldense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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