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Predictions › Argentina › Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín)
Argentina Liga ProfesionalFri 9 Oct, 17:30 Argentina time

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín) prediction

José María Minella

AldosiviHome
1.46 : 1.05
expected goals
Sarmiento (Junín)Away
46%Aldosivi
28%Draw
26%Sarmiento (J)
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín) is Aldosivi to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Aldosivi to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Aldosivi 1.5, Sarmiento (Junín) 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Aldosivi to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.961 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Aldosivi 46%, the draw 28% and Sarmiento (Junín) 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Aldosivi took 6 points from their last 5 games and Sarmiento (Junín) took 7 from 5. Sarmiento (Junín) come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Aldosivi won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Sarmiento (Junín) won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Aldosivi score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Sarmiento (Junín) score 1.3 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Aldosivi games and 11 of Sarmiento (Junín) games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Aldosivi won 0 and Sarmiento (Junín) won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sarmiento (Junín) 2, Aldosivi 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aldosivirecent form-1%
Aldosivi form W L W L LSarmiento (J) form L D W L WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín): Aldosivi are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Aldosivi host Sarmiento (Junín) in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Fri 9 Oct, 17:30 at José María Minella. Our prediction for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín) is Aldosivi to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Aldosivi form

Aldosivi have 2 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Sarmiento (Junín) form

Sarmiento (Junín) have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Aldosivi won 0, Sarmiento (Junín) won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sarmiento (Junín) 2, Aldosivi 0.

Our call

We expect Aldosivi to score about 1.5 goals and Sarmiento (Junín) about 1.1. That points to Aldosivi to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Aldosivi to win and Over 2.5 at 3.96.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AldosiviSarmiento (J)
Games played2020
Wins29
Draws72
Losses119
Goals scored1626
Goals conceded2930
Scored per game0.81.3
Conceded per game1.41.5
Home record2W 5D 3L6W 2D 3L
Away record0W 2D 8L3W 0D 6L
Clean sheets20%35%
Both teams scored55%55%
Over 2.5 goals35%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.38
Over 2.5 goals46%2.17
Over 3.5 goals25%4.07
Both teams to score51%1.97
Aldosivi or Draw74%1.36
Sarmiento (Junín) or Draw54%1.84
Aldosivi to win and Over 2.526%3.84
Sarmiento (Junín) to win and Over 2.514%7.02
Aldosivi clean sheet35%2.87
Sarmiento (Junín) clean sheet23%4.31

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
1-011.1%
2-19.1%
0-08.8%
2-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín)?

Our prediction for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín) is Aldosivi to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín)?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Aldosivi to score 1.5 goals and Sarmiento (Junín) 1.1.

Will both teams score in Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín)?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Aldosivi last 20 games and 11 of Sarmiento (Junín) last 20.

How are Aldosivi playing?

Aldosivi have 2 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Sarmiento (Junín) playing?

Sarmiento (Junín) have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Aldosivi and Sarmiento (Junín) last met?

It ended Sarmiento (Junín) 2, Aldosivi 0. In the last 2 meetings Aldosivi won 0 and Sarmiento (Junín) won 2.

What is the best bet for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Junín)?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Aldosivi against Sarmiento (J). A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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