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Predictions › Peru › Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 Peru time

Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction

Estadio Campeones del '36

Alianza AtléticoHome
1.92 : 0.94
expected goals
Comerciantes UnidosAway
60%Alianza Atl
23%Draw
17%Comer Unid
Eagle safe pickAlianza Atlético or Draw
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.17.

Prediction
Alianza Atlético to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Alianza Atlético 1.9, Comerciantes Unidos 0.9
Best bet
Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.17
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Alianza Atlético or Draw
86% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 2.801 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alianza Atlético 60%, the draw 23% and Comerciantes Unidos 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alianza Atlético took 13 points from their last 5 games and Comerciantes Unidos took 4 from 5. Alianza Atlético come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alianza Atlético won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Comerciantes Unidos won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alianza Atlético score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Comerciantes Unidos score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Alianza Atlético games and 9 of Comerciantes Unidos games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alianza Atlético won 0 and Comerciantes Unidos won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Comerciantes Unidos 1, Alianza Atlético 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Alianza Atlético or Draw has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alianza Atlrecent form+6%
  • Comer Unidrecent form-3%
  • Comer Unidrest between games-5%
Alianza Atl form W W W D WComer Unid form L D L W LHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos: Alianza Atlético are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza Atlético host Comerciantes Unidos in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 at Estadio Campeones del '36. Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.17.

Alianza Atlético form

Alianza Atlético have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Comerciantes Unidos form

Comerciantes Unidos have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alianza Atlético won 0, Comerciantes Unidos won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Comerciantes Unidos 1, Alianza Atlético 0.

Our call

We expect Alianza Atlético to score about 1.9 goals and Comerciantes Unidos about 0.9. That points to Alianza Atlético to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.17. Our bold bet is Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.5 at 2.80.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Alianza AtlComer Unid
Games played2020
Wins95
Draws48
Losses77
Goals scored3526
Goals conceded2927
Scored per game1.81.3
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record6W 2D 1L3W 4D 2L
Away record3W 2D 6L2W 4D 5L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored75%55%
Over 2.5 goals65%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.83
Over 3.5 goals32%3.10
Both teams to score53%1.90
Alianza Atlético or Draw83%1.21
Comerciantes Unidos or Draw40%2.49
Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.539%2.57
Comerciantes Unidos to win and Over 2.510%10.00
Alianza Atlético clean sheet39%2.56
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet15%6.85

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%
2-010.6%
1-010.4%
2-19.9%
3-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-0. We expect Alianza Atlético to score 1.9 goals and Comerciantes Unidos 0.9.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Alianza Atlético last 20 games and 11 of Comerciantes Unidos last 20.

How are Alianza Atlético playing?

Alianza Atlético have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Comerciantes Unidos playing?

Comerciantes Unidos have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Alianza Atlético and Comerciantes Unidos last met?

It ended Comerciantes Unidos 1, Alianza Atlético 0. In the last 2 meetings Alianza Atlético won 0 and Comerciantes Unidos won 2.

What is the best bet for Alianza Atlético vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza Atl against Comer Unid. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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