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Predictions › Peru › Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1Wed 28 Oct, 20:30 Peru time

Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction

Estadio Campeones del '36

Alianza AtléticoHome
1.38 : 0.80
expected goals
Deportivo GarcilasoAway
50%Alianza Atl
29%Draw
21%Garcilaso
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Alianza Atlético to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Alianza Atlético 1.4, Deportivo Garcilaso 0.8
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
15% chanceFair price 6.721 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alianza Atlético 50%, the draw 29% and Deportivo Garcilaso 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alianza Atlético took 9 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Garcilaso took 6 from 5. Alianza Atlético come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alianza Atlético won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Deportivo Garcilaso won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alianza Atlético score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Alianza Atlético games and 9 of Deportivo Garcilaso games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alianza Atlético won 1 and Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportivo Garcilaso 2, Alianza Atlético 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alianza Atlrecent form+3%
  • Alianza Atlrest between games-5%
  • Garcilasorest between games-5%
Alianza Atl form D W W L WGarcilaso form D L W L WHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso: Alianza Atlético are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza Atlético host Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Wed 28 Oct, 20:30 at Estadio Campeones del '36. Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Alianza Atlético form

Alianza Atlético have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Deportivo Garcilaso form

Deportivo Garcilaso have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alianza Atlético won 1, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Garcilaso 2, Alianza Atlético 1.

Our call

We expect Alianza Atlético to score about 1.4 goals and Deportivo Garcilaso about 0.8. That points to Alianza Atlético to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.72.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Alianza AtlGarcilaso
Games played2020
Wins1012
Draws22
Losses86
Goals scored3532
Goals conceded3219
Scored per game1.81.6
Conceded per game1.60.9
Home record6W 1D 2L9W 0D 1L
Away record4W 1D 6L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets10%45%
Both teams scored80%40%
Over 2.5 goals70%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals65%1.54
Over 2.5 goals37%2.69
Over 3.5 goals18%5.65
Both teams to score42%2.38
Alianza Atlético or Draw79%1.26
Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw50%2.00
Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.524%4.11
Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.59%11.08
Alianza Atlético clean sheet45%2.22
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet25%3.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.9%
1-113.2%
0-012.0%
2-010.8%
2-18.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Alianza Atlético to score 1.4 goals and Deportivo Garcilaso 0.8.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Alianza Atlético last 20 games and 8 of Deportivo Garcilaso last 20.

How are Alianza Atlético playing?

Alianza Atlético have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Deportivo Garcilaso playing?

Deportivo Garcilaso have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Alianza Atlético and Deportivo Garcilaso last met?

It ended Deportivo Garcilaso 2, Alianza Atlético 1. In the last 2 meetings Alianza Atlético won 1 and Deportivo Garcilaso won 1.

What is the best bet for Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza Atl against Garcilaso. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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