Predictions › Peru › Alianza Atlético vs Melgar

Peruvian Liga 1Wed 18 Nov, 20:00 Peru time

Alianza Atlético vs Melgar prediction

Estadio Campeones del '36

Alianza AtléticoHome

1.30 : 1.27

expected goals

MelgarAway

37%Alianza Atl

28%Draw

35%Melgar

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Melgar is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Alianza Atlético to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Alianza Atlético 1.3, Melgar 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Alianza Atlético 37%, the draw 28% and Melgar 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Alianza Atlético took 6 points from their last 5 games and Melgar took 10 from 5. Melgar come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Alianza Atlético won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Melgar won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Alianza Atlético score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.8. Melgar score 1.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Alianza Atlético games and 11 of Melgar games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Alianza Atlético won 0 and Melgar won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Melgar 3, Alianza Atlético 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Alianza Atlrecent form-1%
Melgarrecent form+1%
Alianza Atlrest between games-2%
Melgarrest between games-2%

Alianza Atl form L W W L LMelgar form D L D W WHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza Atlético vs Melgar: Alianza Atlético shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza Atlético host Melgar in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Wed 18 Nov, 20:00 at Estadio Campeones del '36. Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Melgar is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Alianza Atlético form

Alianza Atlético have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Melgar form

Melgar have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Alianza Atlético won 0, Melgar won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Melgar 3, Alianza Atlético 1.

Our call

We expect Alianza Atlético to score about 1.3 goals and Melgar about 1.3. That points to Alianza Atlético to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Alianza Atl	Melgar
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	10
Draws	2	7
Losses	8	3
Goals scored	34	36
Goals conceded	36	22
Scored per game	1.7	1.8
Conceded per game	1.8	1.1
Home record	7W 1D 1L	6W 3D 1L
Away record	3W 1D 7L	4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets	15%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.90
Both teams to score	53%	1.89
Alianza Atlético or Draw	65%	1.54
Melgar or Draw	63%	1.58
Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.76
Melgar to win and Over 2.5	20%	4.99
Alianza Atlético clean sheet	28%	3.55
Melgar clean sheet	27%	3.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%

1-09.2%

0-19.0%

0-08.4%

2-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza Atlético vs Melgar?

Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Melgar is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Melgar?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Alianza Atlético to score 1.3 goals and Melgar 1.3.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atlético vs Melgar?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Alianza Atlético last 20 games and 14 of Melgar last 20.

How are Alianza Atlético playing?

How are Melgar playing?

What happened when Alianza Atlético and Melgar last met?

It ended Melgar 3, Alianza Atlético 1. In the last 1 meeting Alianza Atlético won 0 and Melgar won 1.

What is the best bet for Alianza Atlético vs Melgar?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza Atl against Melgar. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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