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Predictions › Peru › Alianza Atlético vs Universitario
Peruvian Liga 1Sun 18 Oct, 20:30 Peru time

Alianza Atlético vs Universitario prediction

Estadio Manische

Alianza AtléticoHome
1.68 : 1.19
expected goals
UniversitarioAway
48%Alianza Atl
25%Draw
26%Universitario
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Universitario is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Alianza Atlético to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Alianza Atlético 1.7, Universitario 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alianza Atlético 48%, the draw 25% and Universitario 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alianza Atlético took 12 points from their last 5 games and Universitario took 10 from 5. Alianza Atlético come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alianza Atlético won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Universitario won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alianza Atlético score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.5. Universitario score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Alianza Atlético games and 13 of Universitario games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alianza Atlético won 1 and Universitario won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Universitario 1, Alianza Atlético 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alianza Atlrecent form+4%
  • Universitariorecent form+3%
Alianza Atl form W L W W WUniversitario form L W D W WHome edge in this league 44% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza Atlético vs Universitario: Alianza Atlético are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza Atlético host Universitario in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 18 Oct, 20:30 at Estadio Manische. Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Universitario is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Alianza Atlético form

Alianza Atlético have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Universitario form

Universitario have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alianza Atlético won 1, Universitario won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Universitario 1, Alianza Atlético 2.

Our call

We expect Alianza Atlético to score about 1.7 goals and Universitario about 1.2. That points to Alianza Atlético to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.5 at 3.26.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Alianza AtlUniversitario
Games played2020
Wins99
Draws46
Losses75
Goals scored3431
Goals conceded3025
Scored per game1.71.6
Conceded per game1.51.3
Home record6W 2D 1L4W 3D 2L
Away record3W 2D 6L5W 3D 3L
Clean sheets10%25%
Both teams scored80%60%
Over 2.5 goals65%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.83
Over 3.5 goals32%3.10
Both teams to score57%1.75
Alianza Atlético or Draw74%1.36
Universitario or Draw52%1.93
Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.531%3.20
Universitario to win and Over 2.516%6.16
Alianza Atlético clean sheet31%3.27
Universitario clean sheet19%5.35

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%
2-19.5%
1-08.9%
2-08.0%
1-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza Atlético vs Universitario?

Our prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Universitario is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Alianza Atlético vs Universitario?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Alianza Atlético to score 1.7 goals and Universitario 1.2.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atlético vs Universitario?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Alianza Atlético last 20 games and 12 of Universitario last 20.

How are Alianza Atlético playing?

Alianza Atlético have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Universitario playing?

Universitario have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Alianza Atlético and Universitario last met?

It ended Universitario 1, Alianza Atlético 2. In the last 2 meetings Alianza Atlético won 1 and Universitario won 1.

What is the best bet for Alianza Atlético vs Universitario?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza Atl against Universitario. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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