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Predictions › Colombia › Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas
Colombian Primera ASat 10 Oct, 00:30 Colombia time

Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas prediction

Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Alianza FCHome
1.15 : 1.23
expected goals
Águilas DoradasAway
33%Alianza FC
29%Draw
37%Águilas Doradas
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas is Águilas Doradas to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Águilas Doradas to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Alianza FC 1.1, Águilas Doradas 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.221 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alianza FC 33%, the draw 29% and Águilas Doradas 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alianza FC took 9 points from their last 5 games and Águilas Doradas took 2 from 5. Alianza FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alianza FC won 3 of their last 12 games at home. Águilas Doradas won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alianza FC score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Águilas Doradas score 1.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Alianza FC games and 10 of Águilas Doradas games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alianza FC won 0 and Águilas Doradas won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Águilas Doradas 1, Alianza FC 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alianza FCrecent form+1%
  • Águilas Doradasrecent form-4%
  • Alianza FCrest between games-2%
  • Águilas Doradasrest between games-2%
Alianza FC form W L W W LÁguilas Doradas form L L D L DHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas: Águilas Doradas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza FC host Águilas Doradas in the Colombian Primera A on Sat 10 Oct, 00:30 at Armando Maestre Pavajeau. Our prediction for Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas is Águilas Doradas to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Alianza FC form

Alianza FC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Águilas Doradas form

Águilas Doradas have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alianza FC won 0, Águilas Doradas won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Águilas Doradas 1, Alianza FC 0.

Our call

We expect Alianza FC to score about 1.1 goals and Águilas Doradas about 1.2. That points to Águilas Doradas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.22.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Alianza FCÁguilas Doradas
Games played2020
Wins66
Draws57
Losses97
Goals scored1922
Goals conceded2930
Scored per game0.91.1
Conceded per game1.41.5
Home record3W 4D 5L3W 5D 2L
Away record3W 1D 4L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets30%10%
Both teams scored50%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.44
Over 2.5 goals43%2.34
Over 3.5 goals22%4.57
Both teams to score49%2.03
Alianza FC or Draw63%1.59
Águilas Doradas or Draw67%1.50
Alianza FC to win and Over 2.517%5.72
Águilas Doradas to win and Over 2.520%5.06
Alianza FC clean sheet29%3.43
Águilas Doradas clean sheet32%3.17

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%
0-110.5%
0-010.0%
1-09.8%
1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas?

Our prediction for Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas is Águilas Doradas to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Alianza FC to score 1.1 goals and Águilas Doradas 1.2.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Alianza FC last 20 games and 12 of Águilas Doradas last 20.

How are Alianza FC playing?

Alianza FC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Águilas Doradas playing?

Águilas Doradas have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Alianza FC and Águilas Doradas last met?

It ended Águilas Doradas 1, Alianza FC 0. In the last 2 meetings Alianza FC won 0 and Águilas Doradas won 2.

What is the best bet for Alianza FC vs Águilas Doradas?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza FC against Águilas Doradas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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