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Predictions › Colombia › Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior
Colombian Primera ASun 13 Sept, 01:20 Colombia time

Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior prediction

Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Alianza FCHome
1-0
final score
Atlético JuniorAway
28%Alianza FC
28%Draw
44%Atl. Junior
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.36

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior is Atlético Junior to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.36.

Prediction
Atlético Junior to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Alianza FC 1.1, Atlético Junior 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.36
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
73% chanceFair price 1.361 unitwon
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.541 unitlost

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alianza FC 28%, the draw 28% and Atlético Junior 44%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético Junior the favourite at 1.91.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alianza FC took 1 point from their last 5 games and Atlético Junior took 3 from 5. Atlético Junior come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alianza FC won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Atlético Junior won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alianza FC score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Atlético Junior score 1.3 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Alianza FC games and 8 of Atlético Junior games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alianza FC won 0 and Atlético Junior won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Atlético Junior 1, Alianza FC 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alianza FCrecent form-6%
  • Atl. Juniorrecent form-3%
Alianza FC form L L L L DAtl. Junior form D D L D LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior: Atlético Junior shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza FC host Atlético Junior in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 13 Sept, 01:20 at Armando Maestre Pavajeau. Our prediction for Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior is Atlético Junior to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.36.

Alianza FC form

Alianza FC have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Atlético Junior form

Atlético Junior have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alianza FC won 0, Atlético Junior won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Junior 1, Alianza FC 1.

Our call

We expect Alianza FC to score about 1.1 goals and Atlético Junior about 1.4. That points to Atlético Junior to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.36. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Alianza FCAtl. Junior
Games played2020
Wins35
Draws77
Losses108
Goals scored1526
Goals conceded3130
Scored per game0.81.3
Conceded per game1.61.5
Home record2W 4D 5L4W 5D 2L
Away record1W 3D 5L1W 2D 6L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored45%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Alianza FC to win27%3.753.10-17.3%
A Draw27%3.763.35-10.8%
Atlético Junior to win42%2.382.15-9.8%
Over 2.5 goals44%2.252.00-11.0%
Under 2.5 goals53%1.901.74-8.4%
Alianza FC +0.556%1.801.65-8.7%
Atlético Junior -0.542%2.412.10-12.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.15
Over 3.5 goals25%3.99
Both teams to score52%1.94
Alianza FC or Draw56%1.80
Atlético Junior or Draw72%1.39
Alianza FC to win and Over 2.515%6.58
Atlético Junior to win and Over 2.525%3.92
Alianza FC clean sheet24%4.24
Atlético Junior clean sheet34%2.98

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
0-110.7%
1-29.0%
0-08.7%
0-28.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior?

Our prediction for Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior is Atlético Junior to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.36.

What is the score prediction for Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Alianza FC to score 1.1 goals and Atlético Junior 1.4.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Alianza FC last 20 games and 11 of Atlético Junior last 20.

How are Alianza FC playing?

Alianza FC have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Atlético Junior playing?

Atlético Junior have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Alianza FC and Atlético Junior last met?

It ended Atlético Junior 1, Alianza FC 1. In the last 2 meetings Alianza FC won 0 and Atlético Junior won 1.

What is the best bet for Alianza FC vs Atlético Junior?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.36, with a 73% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza FC against Atl. Junior. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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