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Predictions › Colombia › Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera ASat 19 Sept, 21:05 Colombia time

Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe prediction

Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Alianza FCHome
0.83 : 1.24
expected goals
Independiente Santa FeAway
24%Alianza FC
31%Draw
45%Santa Fe
Eagle safe pickIndependiente Santa Fe or Draw
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.28.

Prediction
Independiente Santa Fe to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
Alianza FC 0.8, Independiente Santa Fe 1.2
Best bet
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.28
Both teams to score
41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Independiente Santa Fe or Draw
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-1
15% chanceFair price 6.711 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alianza FC 24%, the draw 31% and Independiente Santa Fe 45%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alianza FC took 4 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Santa Fe took 9 from 5. Independiente Santa Fe come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alianza FC won 3 of their last 12 games at home. Independiente Santa Fe won 2 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alianza FC score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Independiente Santa Fe score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Alianza FC games and 10 of Independiente Santa Fe games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alianza FC won 0 and Independiente Santa Fe won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Independiente Santa Fe 1, Alianza FC 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Independiente Santa Fe or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alianza FCrecent form-4%
  • Santa Ferecent form+3%
  • Alianza FCrest between games-5%
  • Santa Ferest between games-5%
Alianza FC form W L L L LSanta Fe form W D D W DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe: Independiente Santa Fe are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza FC host Independiente Santa Fe in the Colombian Primera A on Sat 19 Sept, 21:05 at Armando Maestre Pavajeau. Our prediction for Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.28.

Alianza FC form

Alianza FC have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Independiente Santa Fe form

Independiente Santa Fe have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alianza FC won 0, Independiente Santa Fe won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Santa Fe 1, Alianza FC 1.

Our call

We expect Alianza FC to score about 0.8 goals and Independiente Santa Fe about 1.2. That points to Independiente Santa Fe to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-1 at 6.71.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Alianza FCSanta Fe
Games played2020
Wins49
Draws78
Losses93
Goals scored1633
Goals conceded2819
Scored per game0.81.6
Conceded per game1.40.9
Home record3W 4D 5L7W 5D 0L
Away record1W 3D 4L2W 3D 3L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored45%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals62%1.61
Over 2.5 goals34%2.93
Over 3.5 goals15%6.45
Both teams to score41%2.45
Alianza FC or Draw55%1.82
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw76%1.32
Alianza FC to win and Over 2.510%10.04
Independiente Santa Fe to win and Over 2.520%4.90
Alianza FC clean sheet29%3.45
Independiente Santa Fe clean sheet44%2.29

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-114.9%
1-113.8%
0-013.4%
1-09.7%
0-29.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe?

Our prediction for Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Alianza FC to score 0.8 goals and Independiente Santa Fe 1.2.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Alianza FC last 20 games and 12 of Independiente Santa Fe last 20.

How are Alianza FC playing?

Alianza FC have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are Independiente Santa Fe playing?

Independiente Santa Fe have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Alianza FC and Independiente Santa Fe last met?

It ended Independiente Santa Fe 1, Alianza FC 1. In the last 2 meetings Alianza FC won 0 and Independiente Santa Fe won 1.

What is the best bet for Alianza FC vs Independiente Santa Fe?

Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza FC against Santa Fe. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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