Predictions › Peru › Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau

Peruvian Liga 1Sun 18 Oct, 01:30 Peru time

Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau prediction

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza LimaHome

1.98 : 0.76

expected goals

Atlético GrauAway

65%Alianza Lima

22%Draw

13%Atlético Grau

Eagle safe pickAlianza Lima or Draw

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau is Alianza Lima to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.18.

Prediction: Alianza Lima to win
Chance: 65%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Alianza Lima 2.0, Atlético Grau 0.8
Best bet: Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.18
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Alianza Lima or Draw

84% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5

38% chanceFair price 2.641 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Alianza Lima 65%, the draw 22% and Atlético Grau 13%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Alianza Lima took 5 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Grau took 9 from 5. Atlético Grau come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Alianza Lima won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Atlético Grau won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Alianza Lima score 1.7 goals a game and let in 0.7. Atlético Grau score 1.1 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Alianza Lima games and 8 of Atlético Grau games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Alianza Lima won 2 and Atlético Grau won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Grau 0, Alianza Lima 1.
6
The safest bet
Alianza Lima or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Alianza Limarecent form-1%
Atlético Graurecent form+1%

Alianza Lima form W L D L DAtlético Grau form L W L W WHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau: Alianza Lima are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza Lima host Atlético Grau in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 18 Oct, 01:30 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau is Alianza Lima to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.18.

Alianza Lima form

Alianza Lima have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Atlético Grau form

Atlético Grau have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alianza Lima won 2, Atlético Grau won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Grau 0, Alianza Lima 1.

Our call

We expect Alianza Lima to score about 2.0 goals and Atlético Grau about 0.8. That points to Alianza Lima to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.18. Our bold bet is Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5 at 2.64.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Alianza Lima	Atlético Grau
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	8
Draws	6	3
Losses	3	9
Goals scored	34	23
Goals conceded	14	23
Scored per game	1.7	1.1
Conceded per game	0.7	1.1
Home record	8W 1D 2L	6W 1D 3L
Away record	3W 5D 1L	2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.31
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93
Over 3.5 goals	30%	3.38
Both teams to score	47%	2.14
Alianza Lima or Draw	87%	1.15
Atlético Grau or Draw	35%	2.89
Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5	41%	2.46
Atlético Grau to win and Over 2.5	7%	14.81
Alianza Lima clean sheet	47%	2.15
Atlético Grau clean sheet	14%	7.26

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-012.6%

1-012.1%

1-110.3%

2-19.6%

3-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau?

Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau is Alianza Lima to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Alianza Lima to score 2.0 goals and Atlético Grau 0.8.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Alianza Lima last 20 games and 8 of Atlético Grau last 20.

How are Alianza Lima playing?

How are Atlético Grau playing?

What happened when Alianza Lima and Atlético Grau last met?

It ended Atlético Grau 0, Alianza Lima 1. In the last 2 meetings Alianza Lima won 2 and Atlético Grau won 0.

What is the best bet for Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau?

Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.18, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza Lima against Atlético Grau. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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