Predictions › Peru › Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco

Peruvian Liga 1Sat 31 Oct, 18:00 Peru time

Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco prediction

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza LimaHome

2.16 : 1.08

expected goals

Cienciano del CuscoAway

61%Alianza Lima

21%Draw

17%Cienciano

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco is Alianza Lima to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Alianza Lima to win
Chance: 61%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Alianza Lima 2.2, Cienciano del Cusco 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5

44% chanceFair price 2.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Alianza Lima 61%, the draw 21% and Cienciano del Cusco 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Alianza Lima took 10 points from their last 5 games and Cienciano del Cusco took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Alianza Lima won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Cienciano del Cusco won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Alianza Lima score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.8. Cienciano del Cusco score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Alianza Lima games and 10 of Cienciano del Cusco games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Alianza Lima won 1 and Cienciano del Cusco won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cienciano del Cusco 0, Alianza Lima 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Alianza Limarecent form-1%
Ciencianorest between games-2%

Alianza Lima form W L D L DCienciano form D L L W WHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco: Alianza Lima are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza Lima host Cienciano del Cusco in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sat 31 Oct, 18:00 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco is Alianza Lima to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Alianza Lima form

Alianza Lima have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Cienciano del Cusco form

Cienciano del Cusco have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alianza Lima won 1, Cienciano del Cusco won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cienciano del Cusco 0, Alianza Lima 1.

Our call

We expect Alianza Lima to score about 2.2 goals and Cienciano del Cusco about 1.1. That points to Alianza Lima to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5 at 2.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Alianza Lima	Cienciano
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	8
Draws	6	4
Losses	2	8
Goals scored	37	27
Goals conceded	15	28
Scored per game	1.9	1.4
Conceded per game	0.8	1.4
Home record	8W 1D 2L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	4W 5D 0L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	63%	1.59
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.45
Both teams to score	59%	1.69
Alianza Lima or Draw	83%	1.21
Cienciano del Cusco or Draw	39%	2.59
Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5	44%	2.25
Cienciano del Cusco to win and Over 2.5	12%	8.67
Alianza Lima clean sheet	34%	2.95
Cienciano del Cusco clean sheet	11%	8.70

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.9%

1-19.7%

2-09.1%

1-07.9%

3-17.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco?

Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco is Alianza Lima to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Alianza Lima to score 2.2 goals and Cienciano del Cusco 1.1.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Alianza Lima last 20 games and 11 of Cienciano del Cusco last 20.

How are Alianza Lima playing?

How are Cienciano del Cusco playing?

What happened when Alianza Lima and Cienciano del Cusco last met?

It ended Cienciano del Cusco 0, Alianza Lima 1. In the last 2 meetings Alianza Lima won 1 and Cienciano del Cusco won 1.

What is the best bet for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano del Cusco?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza Lima against Cienciano. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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