Predictions › Peru › Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca

Peruvian Liga 1Sat 21 Nov, 20:30 Peru time

Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca prediction

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza LimaHome

2.66 : 1.01

expected goals

FC CajamarcaAway

72%Alianza Lima

16%Draw

12%Cajamarca

Eagle safe pickAlianza Lima draw no bet

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca is Alianza Lima to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Alianza Lima draw no bet at 1.17.

Prediction: Alianza Lima to win
Chance: 72%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Alianza Lima 2.7, FC Cajamarca 1.0
Best bet: Alianza Lima draw no bet at 1.17
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Alianza Lima draw no bet

86% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alianza Lima to win and both score

38% chanceFair price 2.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Alianza Lima 72%, the draw 16% and FC Cajamarca 12%. The bookmakers agree and make Alianza Lima the favourite at 1.24.
2
Recent form
Alianza Lima took 10 points from their last 5 games and FC Cajamarca took 3 from 5. Alianza Lima come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Alianza Lima won 7 of their last 10 games at home. FC Cajamarca won 4 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Alianza Lima score 1.5 goals a game and let in 0.9. FC Cajamarca score 1.5 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Alianza Lima games and 14 of FC Cajamarca games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Alianza Lima won 0 and FC Cajamarca won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended FC Cajamarca 1, Alianza Lima 1.
6
The safest bet
Alianza Lima draw no bet has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Alianza Limarecent form+3%
Cajamarcarecent form-4%

Alianza Lima form D W L W WCajamarca form W L L L LHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca: Alianza Lima are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza Lima host FC Cajamarca in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sat 21 Nov, 20:30 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca is Alianza Lima to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Alianza Lima draw no bet at 1.17.

Alianza Lima form

Alianza Lima have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

FC Cajamarca form

FC Cajamarca have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 41 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Alianza Lima won 0, FC Cajamarca won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished FC Cajamarca 1, Alianza Lima 1.

Our call

We expect Alianza Lima to score about 2.7 goals and FC Cajamarca about 1.0. That points to Alianza Lima to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Alianza Lima draw no bet at 1.17. Our bold bet is Alianza Lima to win and both score at 2.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Alianza Lima	Cajamarca
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	6
Draws	7	4
Losses	3	10
Goals scored	30	30
Goals conceded	18	41
Scored per game	1.5	1.5
Conceded per game	0.9	2.0
Home record	7W 1D 2L	2W 2D 7L
Away record	3W 6D 1L	4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Both teams scored	65%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Alianza Lima to win	74%	1.36	1.24	-9.2%
A Draw	16%	6.45	5.50	-14.8%
FC Cajamarca to win	11%	9.12	7.50	-17.7%
Over 3.5 goals	43%	2.34	2.10	-10.4%
Under 3.5 goals	50%	1.98	1.56	-21.6%
Alianza Lima -1.5	49%	2.05	1.67	-18.5%
FC Cajamarca +1.5	44%	2.27	1.95	-13.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	89%	1.13
Over 2.5 goals	71%	1.41
Over 3.5 goals	50%	2.00
Both teams to score	60%	1.68
Alianza Lima or Draw	88%	1.13
FC Cajamarca or Draw	28%	3.58
Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5	57%	1.76
FC Cajamarca to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.38
Alianza Lima clean sheet	36%	2.75
FC Cajamarca clean sheet	7%	14.32

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.1%

2-09.0%

3-18.1%

3-08.0%

1-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca is Alianza Lima to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Alianza Lima draw no bet at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 3-1. We expect Alianza Lima to score 2.7 goals and FC Cajamarca 1.0.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Alianza Lima last 20 games and 15 of FC Cajamarca last 20.

How are Alianza Lima playing?

How are FC Cajamarca playing?

What happened when Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca last met?

It ended FC Cajamarca 1, Alianza Lima 1. In the last 1 meeting Alianza Lima won 0 and FC Cajamarca won 0.

What is the best bet for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

Alianza Lima draw no bet at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza Lima against Cajamarca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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