Predictions › Peru › Alianza Lima vs Universitario

Peruvian Liga 1Sun 13 Sept, 01:00 Peru time

Alianza Lima vs Universitario prediction

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza LimaHome

1-2

final score

UniversitarioAway

43%Alianza Lima

30%Draw

27%Universitario

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs Universitario is Alianza Lima to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction: Alianza Lima to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Alianza Lima 1.3, Universitario 0.9
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.212 unitswon

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.171 unitlost

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Alianza Lima 43%, the draw 30% and Universitario 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Alianza Lima the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Alianza Lima took 6 points from their last 5 games and Universitario took 11 from 5. Universitario come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Alianza Lima won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Universitario won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Alianza Lima score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.7. Universitario score 1.7 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Alianza Lima games and 13 of Universitario games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Alianza Lima won 0 and Universitario won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Universitario 1, Alianza Lima 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Universitariorecent form+4%

Alianza Lima form D L D W DUniversitario form D W W W DHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alianza Lima vs Universitario: Alianza Lima shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alianza Lima host Universitario in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 13 Sept, 01:00 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs Universitario is Alianza Lima to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Alianza Lima form

Alianza Lima have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Universitario form

Universitario have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Alianza Lima won 0, Universitario won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Universitario 1, Alianza Lima 0.

Our call

We expect Alianza Lima to score about 1.3 goals and Universitario about 0.9. That points to Alianza Lima to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.17.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Alianza Lima	Universitario
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	9
Draws	7	6
Losses	2	5
Goals scored	35	34
Goals conceded	14	23
Scored per game	1.8	1.7
Conceded per game	0.7	1.1
Home record	8W 1D 1L	5W 3D 2L
Away record	3W 6D 1L	4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Alianza Lima to win	41%	2.45	2.25	-8.1%
A Draw	29%	3.44	2.85	-17.2%
Universitario to win	26%	3.90	3.50	-10.4%
Over 1.5 goals	63%	1.60	1.51	-5.4%
Under 1.5 goals	35%	2.87	2.40	-16.4%
Alianza Lima -0.5	40%	2.51	2.20	-12.4%
Universitario +0.5	57%	1.75	1.61	-8.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	66%	1.52
Over 2.5 goals	38%	2.60
Over 3.5 goals	19%	5.38
Both teams to score	45%	2.23
Alianza Lima or Draw	73%	1.36
Universitario or Draw	57%	1.77
Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.64
Universitario to win and Over 2.5	12%	8.08
Alianza Lima clean sheet	39%	2.57
Universitario clean sheet	28%	3.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%

1-013.1%

0-011.6%

0-19.4%

2-08.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alianza Lima vs Universitario?

Our prediction for Alianza Lima vs Universitario is Alianza Lima to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Alianza Lima vs Universitario?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Alianza Lima to score 1.3 goals and Universitario 0.9.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Universitario?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Alianza Lima last 20 games and 13 of Universitario last 20.

How are Alianza Lima playing?

How are Universitario playing?

What happened when Alianza Lima and Universitario last met?

It ended Universitario 1, Alianza Lima 0. In the last 1 meeting Alianza Lima won 0 and Universitario won 1.

What is the best bet for Alianza Lima vs Universitario?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alianza Lima against Universitario. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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