Predictions › Spain › Almería vs Burgos

LaLiga 2Sat 3 Oct, 14:15 Spain time

Almería vs Burgos prediction

Power Horse Stadium

AlmeríaHome

1.64 : 0.90

expected goals

BurgosAway

54%Almería

26%Draw

20%Burgos

Eagle safe pickAlmería or Draw

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Almería vs Burgos is Almería to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Almería or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction: Almería to win
Chance: 54%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Almería 1.6, Burgos 0.9
Best bet: Almería or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score: 49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Almería or Draw

78% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Almería to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.351 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Almería 54%, the draw 26% and Burgos 20%. The bookmakers agree and make Almería the favourite at 1.61.
2
Recent form
Almería took 12 points from their last 5 games and Burgos took 11 from 5. Almería come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Almería won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Burgos won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Almería score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Burgos score 1.4 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Almería games and 7 of Burgos games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Almería won 0 and Burgos won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Burgos 0, Almería 0.
6
The safest bet
Almería or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Almeríarecent form+4%
Burgosrecent form+4%
Almeríarest between games-5%
Burgosrest between games-5%

Almería form W W W W LBurgos form W W W D DHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Almería vs Burgos: Almería are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Almería host Burgos in the LaLiga 2 on Sat 3 Oct, 14:15 at Power Horse Stadium. Our prediction for Almería vs Burgos is Almería to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Almería or Draw at 1.29.

Almería form

Almería have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Burgos form

Burgos have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Almería won 0, Burgos won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Burgos 0, Almería 0.

Our call

We expect Almería to score about 1.6 goals and Burgos about 0.9. That points to Almería to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Almería or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is Almería to win and Over 2.5 at 3.35.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Almería	Burgos
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	11
Draws	3	7
Losses	6	2
Goals scored	33	27
Goals conceded	26	14
Scored per game	1.6	1.4
Conceded per game	1.3	0.7
Home record	8W 0D 2L	6W 4D 0L
Away record	3W 3D 4L	5W 3D 2L
Clean sheets	35%	55%
Both teams scored	55%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Almería to win	51%	1.96	1.61	-18.1%
A Draw	25%	3.98	3.80	-4.5%
Burgos to win	20%	5.09	5.00	-1.7%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.26	1.91	-15.5%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	2.02	1.74	-13.9%
Almería -0.5	54%	1.86	1.56	-16.4%
Burgos +0.5	40%	2.50	2.15	-13.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.98
Both teams to score	49%	2.06
Almería or Draw	80%	1.25
Burgos or Draw	46%	2.18
Almería to win and Over 2.5	31%	3.20
Burgos to win and Over 2.5	10%	9.68
Almería clean sheet	41%	2.46
Burgos clean sheet	19%	5.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

1-012.2%

2-010.6%

2-19.5%

0-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Almería vs Burgos?

Our prediction for Almería vs Burgos is Almería to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Almería or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Almería vs Burgos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Almería to score 1.6 goals and Burgos 0.9.

Will both teams score in Almería vs Burgos?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Almería last 20 games and 8 of Burgos last 20.

How are Almería playing?

How are Burgos playing?

What happened when Almería and Burgos last met?

It ended Burgos 0, Almería 0. In the last 2 meetings Almería won 0 and Burgos won 1.

What is the best bet for Almería vs Burgos?

Almería or Draw at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Almería against Burgos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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