Predictions › Spain › Almería vs Leganés

LaLiga 2Sun 11 Oct, 14:15 Spain time

Almería vs Leganés prediction

Power Horse Stadium

AlmeríaHome

2.12 : 0.86

expected goals

LeganésAway

66%Almería

21%Draw

14%Leganés

Eagle safe pickAlmería or Draw

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Almería vs Leganés is Almería to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Almería or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction: Almería to win
Chance: 66%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Almería 2.1, Leganés 0.9
Best bet: Almería or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Almería or Draw

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Almería to win and Over 2.5

41% chanceFair price 2.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Almería 66%, the draw 21% and Leganés 14%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Almería took 12 points from their last 5 games and Leganés took 7 from 5. Almería come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Almería won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Leganés won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Almería score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Leganés score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Almería games and 9 of Leganés games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Almería won 2 and Leganés won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Almería 2, Leganés 1.
6
The safest bet
Almería or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Almeríarecent form+4%

Almería form W W W W LLeganés form L W L D WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Almería vs Leganés: Almería are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Almería host Leganés in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 11 Oct, 14:15 at Power Horse Stadium. Our prediction for Almería vs Leganés is Almería to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Almería or Draw at 1.19.

Almería form

Almería have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Leganés form

Leganés have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Almería won 2, Leganés won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Almería 2, Leganés 1.

Our call

We expect Almería to score about 2.1 goals and Leganés about 0.9. That points to Almería to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Almería or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Almería to win and Over 2.5 at 2.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Almería	Leganés
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	6
Draws	3	5
Losses	6	9
Goals scored	33	20
Goals conceded	26	29
Scored per game	1.6	1.0
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	8W 0D 2L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	3W 3D 4L	1W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	35%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.75
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.87
Both teams to score	51%	1.95
Almería or Draw	86%	1.16
Leganés or Draw	34%	2.92
Almería to win and Over 2.5	44%	2.27
Leganés to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.69
Almería clean sheet	42%	2.37
Leganés clean sheet	12%	8.31

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.4%

1-010.2%

1-19.8%

2-19.8%

3-08.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Almería vs Leganés?

Our prediction for Almería vs Leganés is Almería to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Almería or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Almería vs Leganés?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Almería to score 2.1 goals and Leganés 0.9.

Will both teams score in Almería vs Leganés?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Almería last 20 games and 9 of Leganés last 20.

How are Almería playing?

How are Leganés playing?

What happened when Almería and Leganés last met?

It ended Almería 2, Leganés 1. In the last 2 meetings Almería won 2 and Leganés won 0.

What is the best bet for Almería vs Leganés?

Almería or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Almería against Leganés. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.