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Predictions › Portugal › Alverca vs Arouca
Primeira LigaSat 24 Oct, 17:00 Portugal time

Alverca vs Arouca prediction

Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

AlvercaHome
1.23 : 1.08
expected goals
AroucaAway
39%Alverca
30%Draw
32%Arouca
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alverca vs Arouca is Alverca to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Alverca to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Alverca 1.2, Arouca 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.151 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alverca 39%, the draw 30% and Arouca 32%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alverca took 10 points from their last 5 games and Arouca took 8 from 5. Alverca come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alverca won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Arouca won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alverca score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Arouca score 1.5 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Alverca games and 12 of Arouca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alverca won 1 and Arouca won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Alverca 2, Arouca 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alvercarecent form+1%
  • Alvercarest between games-5%
  • Aroucarest between games-2%
Alverca form D W W L DArouca form D D L D WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alverca vs Arouca: Alverca shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alverca host Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Sat 24 Oct, 17:00 at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Our prediction for Alverca vs Arouca is Alverca to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Alverca form

Alverca have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Arouca form

Arouca have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alverca won 1, Arouca won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alverca 2, Arouca 1.

Our call

We expect Alverca to score about 1.2 goals and Arouca about 1.1. That points to Alverca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.15.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AlvercaArouca
Games played2020
Wins610
Draws73
Losses77
Goals scored2630
Goals conceded2722
Scored per game1.31.5
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record3W 5D 2L7W 1D 2L
Away record3W 2D 5L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets10%35%
Both teams scored70%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.47
Over 3.5 goals20%4.95
Both teams to score47%2.11
Alverca or Draw69%1.46
Arouca or Draw61%1.63
Alverca to win and Over 2.520%5.06
Arouca to win and Over 2.516%6.36
Alverca clean sheet34%2.94
Arouca clean sheet29%3.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
1-011.4%
0-010.8%
0-110.0%
2-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?

Our prediction for Alverca vs Arouca is Alverca to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Alverca vs Arouca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Alverca to score 1.2 goals and Arouca 1.1.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Arouca?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Alverca last 20 games and 10 of Arouca last 20.

How are Alverca playing?

Alverca have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Arouca playing?

Arouca have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Alverca and Arouca last met?

It ended Alverca 2, Arouca 1. In the last 2 meetings Alverca won 1 and Arouca won 1.

What is the best bet for Alverca vs Arouca?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alverca against Arouca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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