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Predictions › Portugal › Alverca vs Casa Pia
Primeira LigaSat 7 Nov, 18:00 Portugal time

Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction

Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

AlvercaHome
1.18 : 0.86
expected goals
Casa PiaAway
43%Alverca
31%Draw
26%Casa Pia
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alverca vs Casa Pia is Alverca to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Alverca to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Alverca 1.2, Casa Pia 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
15% chanceFair price 6.881 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alverca 43%, the draw 31% and Casa Pia 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alverca took 9 points from their last 5 games and Casa Pia took 7 from 5. Alverca come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alverca won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Casa Pia won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alverca score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Casa Pia score 0.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Alverca games and 6 of Casa Pia games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alverca won 2 and Casa Pia won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Alverca 3, Casa Pia 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alvercarecent form+3%
Alverca form D L W W WCasa Pia form D W L W LHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alverca vs Casa Pia: Alverca shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alverca host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga on Sat 7 Nov, 18:00 at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Our prediction for Alverca vs Casa Pia is Alverca to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Alverca form

Alverca have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Casa Pia form

Casa Pia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 11 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alverca won 2, Casa Pia won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alverca 3, Casa Pia 1.

Our call

We expect Alverca to score about 1.2 goals and Casa Pia about 0.9. That points to Alverca to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.88.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AlvercaCasa Pia
Games played2020
Wins63
Draws66
Losses811
Goals scored2511
Goals conceded2731
Scored per game1.30.6
Conceded per game1.41.6
Home record3W 4D 3L0W 4D 6L
Away record3W 2D 5L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets10%25%
Both teams scored65%35%
Over 2.5 goals50%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals61%1.63
Over 2.5 goals34%2.98
Over 3.5 goals15%6.63
Both teams to score41%2.45
Alverca or Draw74%1.35
Casa Pia or Draw57%1.74
Alverca to win and Over 2.519%5.26
Casa Pia to win and Over 2.511%9.30
Alverca clean sheet42%2.36
Casa Pia clean sheet31%3.27

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.5%
1-114.0%
0-013.7%
0-110.3%
2-09.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?

Our prediction for Alverca vs Casa Pia is Alverca to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Alverca vs Casa Pia?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Alverca to score 1.2 goals and Casa Pia 0.9.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Alverca last 20 games and 7 of Casa Pia last 20.

How are Alverca playing?

Alverca have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Casa Pia playing?

Casa Pia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 11 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Alverca and Casa Pia last met?

It ended Alverca 3, Casa Pia 1. In the last 2 meetings Alverca won 2 and Casa Pia won 0.

What is the best bet for Alverca vs Casa Pia?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alverca against Casa Pia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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