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Predictions › Colombia › América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera ATue 15 Sept, 01:00 Colombia time

América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto prediction

Pascual Guerrero

América de CaliHome
2.11 : 0.72
expected goals
Deportivo PastoAway
69%América Cali
20%Draw
11%Pasto
Eagle safe pickAmérica de Cali to win
1.39

Quick answer

Our prediction for América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto is América de Cali to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is América de Cali to win at 1.39.

Prediction
América de Cali to win
Chance
69%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
América de Cali 2.1, Deportivo Pasto 0.7
Best bet
América de Cali to win at 1.39
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

América de Cali to win
70% chancePrice 1.391 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

América de Cali to win and Over 2.5
41% chanceFair price 2.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives América de Cali 69%, the draw 20% and Deportivo Pasto 11%. The bookmakers agree and make América de Cali the favourite at 1.39.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    América de Cali took 11 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Pasto took 2 from 5. América de Cali come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    América de Cali won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Deportivo Pasto won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    América de Cali score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.8. Deportivo Pasto score 1.2 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of América de Cali games and 10 of Deportivo Pasto games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, América de Cali won 1 and Deportivo Pasto won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportivo Pasto 2, América de Cali 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    América de Cali to win has a 70% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • América Calirecent form+4%
  • Pastorecent form-4%
América Cali form W W D W DPasto form L D L D LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto: América de Cali are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

América de Cali host Deportivo Pasto in the Colombian Primera A on Tue 15 Sept, 01:00 at Pascual Guerrero. Our prediction for América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto is América de Cali to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is América de Cali to win at 1.39.

América de Cali form

América de Cali have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Deportivo Pasto form

Deportivo Pasto have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. América de Cali won 1, Deportivo Pasto won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Pasto 2, América de Cali 0.

Our call

We expect América de Cali to score about 2.1 goals and Deportivo Pasto about 0.7. That points to América de Cali to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is América de Cali to win at 1.39. Our bold bet is América de Cali to win and Over 2.5 at 2.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

América CaliPasto
Games played2020
Wins115
Draws53
Losses412
Goals scored3224
Goals conceded1733
Scored per game1.61.2
Conceded per game0.81.6
Home record7W 3D 0L3W 0D 7L
Away record4W 2D 4L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets50%20%
Both teams scored35%55%
Over 2.5 goals40%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
América de Cali to win70%1.431.39-2.5%
A Draw18%5.414.10-24.2%
Deportivo Pasto to win9%10.807.50-30.6%
Over 2.5 goals48%2.061.91-7.5%
Under 2.5 goals49%2.041.77-13.4%
América de Cali -1.540%2.482.15-13.2%
Deportivo Pasto +1.557%1.751.59-9.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.86
Over 3.5 goals31%3.18
Both teams to score46%2.19
América de Cali or Draw89%1.12
Deportivo Pasto or Draw31%3.22
América de Cali to win and Over 2.544%2.28
Deportivo Pasto to win and Over 2.56%17.43
América de Cali clean sheet49%2.06
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet12%8.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-013.1%
1-011.9%
1-19.5%
2-19.5%
3-09.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto?

Our prediction for América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto is América de Cali to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is América de Cali to win at 1.39.

What is the score prediction for América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect América de Cali to score 2.1 goals and Deportivo Pasto 0.7.

Will both teams score in América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of América de Cali last 20 games and 11 of Deportivo Pasto last 20.

How are América de Cali playing?

América de Cali have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Deportivo Pasto playing?

Deportivo Pasto have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when América de Cali and Deportivo Pasto last met?

It ended Deportivo Pasto 2, América de Cali 0. In the last 2 meetings América de Cali won 1 and Deportivo Pasto won 1.

What is the best bet for América de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto?

América de Cali to win at 1.39, with a 70% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in América Cali against Pasto. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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