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Predictions › Colombia › América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera AThu 29 Oct, 23:15 Colombia time

América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF prediction

Pascual Guerrero

América de CaliHome
1.88 : 0.67
expected goals
Fortaleza CEIFAway
66%América Cali
22%Draw
12%Fortaleza
Eagle safe pickAmérica de Cali draw no bet
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF is América de Cali to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is América de Cali draw no bet at 1.19.

Prediction
América de Cali to win
Chance
66%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
América de Cali 1.9, Fortaleza CEIF 0.7
Best bet
América de Cali draw no bet at 1.19
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

América de Cali draw no bet
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

América de Cali to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.601 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives América de Cali 66%, the draw 22% and Fortaleza CEIF 12%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    América de Cali took 8 points from their last 5 games and Fortaleza CEIF took 4 from 5. América de Cali come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    América de Cali won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Fortaleza CEIF won 0 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    América de Cali score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.9. Fortaleza CEIF score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of América de Cali games and 11 of Fortaleza CEIF games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, América de Cali won 1 and Fortaleza CEIF won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Fortaleza CEIF 1, América de Cali 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    América de Cali draw no bet has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • América Calirecent form+1%
  • Fortalezarecent form-1%
  • América Calirest between games-5%
América Cali form D L W W DFortaleza form D D D D LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF: América de Cali are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

América de Cali host Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombian Primera A on Thu 29 Oct, 23:15 at Pascual Guerrero. Our prediction for América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF is América de Cali to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is América de Cali draw no bet at 1.19.

América de Cali form

América de Cali have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Fortaleza CEIF form

Fortaleza CEIF have 3 wins, 10 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. América de Cali won 1, Fortaleza CEIF won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Fortaleza CEIF 1, América de Cali 2.

Our call

We expect América de Cali to score about 1.9 goals and Fortaleza CEIF about 0.7. That points to América de Cali to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is América de Cali draw no bet at 1.19. Our bold bet is América de Cali to win and Over 2.5 at 2.60.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

América CaliFortaleza
Games played2020
Wins113
Draws510
Losses47
Goals scored3323
Goals conceded1828
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game0.91.4
Home record7W 1D 2L3W 4D 5L
Away record4W 4D 2L0W 6D 2L
Clean sheets40%25%
Both teams scored45%70%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.13
Over 3.5 goals25%3.95
Both teams to score42%2.38
América de Cali or Draw88%1.14
Fortaleza CEIF or Draw34%2.91
América de Cali to win and Over 2.538%2.65
Fortaleza CEIF to win and Over 2.56%18.02
América de Cali clean sheet51%1.95
Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet15%6.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.1%
2-013.8%
1-110.4%
2-19.2%
3-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Our prediction for América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF is América de Cali to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is América de Cali draw no bet at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect América de Cali to score 1.9 goals and Fortaleza CEIF 0.7.

Will both teams score in América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of América de Cali last 20 games and 14 of Fortaleza CEIF last 20.

How are América de Cali playing?

América de Cali have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Fortaleza CEIF playing?

Fortaleza CEIF have 3 wins, 10 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, D, newest first.

What happened when América de Cali and Fortaleza CEIF last met?

It ended Fortaleza CEIF 1, América de Cali 2. In the last 2 meetings América de Cali won 1 and Fortaleza CEIF won 1.

What is the best bet for América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF?

América de Cali draw no bet at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in América Cali against Fortaleza. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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