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Predictions › Colombia › América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera AMon 12 Oct, 01:15 Colombia time

América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín prediction

Pascual Guerrero

América de CaliHome
2.03 : 0.90
expected goals
Independiente MedellínAway
63%América Cali
22%Draw
15%Ind. Medellín
Eagle safe pickAmérica de Cali or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín is América de Cali to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is América de Cali or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
América de Cali to win
Chance
63%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
América de Cali 2.0, Independiente Medellín 0.9
Best bet
América de Cali or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

América de Cali or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

América de Cali to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.561 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives América de Cali 63%, the draw 22% and Independiente Medellín 15%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    América de Cali took 8 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Medellín took 5 from 5. América de Cali come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    América de Cali won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Independiente Medellín won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    América de Cali score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.9. Independiente Medellín score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of América de Cali games and 12 of Independiente Medellín games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, América de Cali won 1 and Independiente Medellín won 2 with 1 draw. The last one ended Independiente Medellín 2, América de Cali 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    América de Cali or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • América Calirecent form+3%
  • Ind. Medellínrecent form-1%
  • Ind. Medellínrest between games-2%
América Cali form W D L W WInd. Medellín form D L W D LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín: América de Cali are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

América de Cali host Independiente Medellín in the Colombian Primera A on Mon 12 Oct, 01:15 at Pascual Guerrero. Our prediction for América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín is América de Cali to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is América de Cali or Draw at 1.21.

América de Cali form

América de Cali have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. América de Cali won 1, Independiente Medellín won 2 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Medellín 2, América de Cali 1.

Our call

We expect América de Cali to score about 2.0 goals and Independiente Medellín about 0.9. That points to América de Cali to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is América de Cali or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is América de Cali to win and Over 2.5 at 2.56.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

América CaliInd. Medellín
Games played2020
Wins1111
Draws42
Losses57
Goals scored3229
Goals conceded1827
Scored per game1.61.4
Conceded per game0.91.4
Home record8W 1D 1L7W 1D 3L
Away record3W 3D 4L4W 1D 4L
Clean sheets45%30%
Both teams scored35%50%
Over 2.5 goals40%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.26
Over 2.5 goals56%1.78
Over 3.5 goals34%2.97
Both teams to score52%1.92
América de Cali or Draw85%1.18
Independiente Medellín or Draw37%2.70
América de Cali to win and Over 2.542%2.40
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.59%11.25
América de Cali clean sheet41%2.46
Independiente Medellín clean sheet13%7.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.0%
1-110.4%
1-010.3%
2-19.9%
3-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín?

Our prediction for América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín is América de Cali to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is América de Cali or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 1-0. We expect América de Cali to score 2.0 goals and Independiente Medellín 0.9.

Will both teams score in América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of América de Cali last 20 games and 10 of Independiente Medellín last 20.

How are América de Cali playing?

América de Cali have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when América de Cali and Independiente Medellín last met?

It ended Independiente Medellín 2, América de Cali 1. In the last 4 meetings América de Cali won 1 and Independiente Medellín won 2.

What is the best bet for América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín?

América de Cali or Draw at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in América Cali against Ind. Medellín. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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