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Predictions › Mexico › América vs Monterrey
Liga MXSun 11 Oct, 03:00 Mexico time

América vs Monterrey prediction

Estadio Banorte

AméricaHome
1.99 : 1.07
expected goals
MonterreyAway
58%América
23%Draw
19%Monterrey
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for América vs Monterrey is América to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
América to win
Chance
58%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
América 2.0, Monterrey 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

América to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives América 58%, the draw 23% and Monterrey 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    América took 10 points from their last 5 games and Monterrey took 4 from 5. América come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    América won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Monterrey won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    América score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Monterrey score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of América games and 13 of Monterrey games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, América won 2 and Monterrey won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended América 1, Monterrey 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Américarecent form-3%
América form W D L L LMonterrey form L W D L WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

América vs Monterrey: América are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

América host Monterrey in the Liga MX on Sun 11 Oct, 03:00 at Estadio Banorte. Our prediction for América vs Monterrey is América to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

América form

América have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Monterrey form

Monterrey have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. América won 2, Monterrey won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished América 1, Monterrey 0.

Our call

We expect América to score about 2.0 goals and Monterrey about 1.1. That points to América to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is América to win and Over 2.5 at 2.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AméricaMonterrey
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws84
Losses410
Goals scored3531
Goals conceded2533
Scored per game1.81.6
Conceded per game1.31.6
Home record4W 4D 2L5W 1D 5L
Away record4W 4D 2L1W 3D 5L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.69
Over 3.5 goals37%2.73
Both teams to score57%1.75
América or Draw81%1.24
Monterrey or Draw42%2.39
América to win and Over 2.540%2.49
Monterrey to win and Over 2.512%8.25
América clean sheet34%2.91
Monterrey clean sheet14%7.34

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%
2-19.9%
2-09.3%
1-08.7%
3-16.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win América vs Monterrey?

Our prediction for América vs Monterrey is América to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for América vs Monterrey?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect América to score 2.0 goals and Monterrey 1.1.

Will both teams score in América vs Monterrey?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of América last 20 games and 12 of Monterrey last 20.

How are América playing?

América have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Monterrey playing?

Monterrey have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when América and Monterrey last met?

It ended América 1, Monterrey 0. In the last 4 meetings América won 2 and Monterrey won 1.

What is the best bet for América vs Monterrey?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in América against Monterrey. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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