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Predictions › Mexico › América vs Pachuca
Liga MXMon 26 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

América vs Pachuca prediction

Estadio Banorte

AméricaHome
1.15 : 1.11
expected goals
PachucaAway
36%América
30%Draw
34%Pachuca
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for América vs Pachuca is América to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
América to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
América 1.1, Pachuca 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.081 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives América 36%, the draw 30% and Pachuca 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    América took 8 points from their last 5 games and Pachuca took 8 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    América won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Pachuca won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    América score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Pachuca score 1.6 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of América games and 10 of Pachuca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, América won 0 and Pachuca won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Pachuca 0, América 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Américarecent form-1%
  • Pachucarecent form+1%
América form D W D L LPachuca form D L D W WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

América vs Pachuca: América shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

América host Pachuca in the Liga MX on Mon 26 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Banorte. Our prediction for América vs Pachuca is América to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

América form

América have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Pachuca form

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. América won 0, Pachuca won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Pachuca 0, América 0.

Our call

We expect América to score about 1.1 goals and Pachuca about 1.1. That points to América to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.08.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AméricaPachuca
Games played2020
Wins89
Draws84
Losses47
Goals scored3532
Goals conceded2524
Scored per game1.81.6
Conceded per game1.31.2
Home record4W 4D 2L3W 3D 3L
Away record4W 4D 2L6W 1D 4L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals67%1.50
Over 2.5 goals39%2.54
Over 3.5 goals19%5.18
Both teams to score47%2.14
América or Draw66%1.52
Pachuca or Draw64%1.56
América to win and Over 2.518%5.65
Pachuca to win and Over 2.517%5.96
América clean sheet33%3.05
Pachuca clean sheet32%3.15

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%
0-011.2%
1-011.2%
0-110.8%
2-17.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win América vs Pachuca?

Our prediction for América vs Pachuca is América to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for América vs Pachuca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect América to score 1.1 goals and Pachuca 1.1.

Will both teams score in América vs Pachuca?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of América last 20 games and 10 of Pachuca last 20.

How are América playing?

América have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Pachuca playing?

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when América and Pachuca last met?

It ended Pachuca 0, América 0. In the last 1 meeting América won 0 and Pachuca won 0.

What is the best bet for América vs Pachuca?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in América against Pachuca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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