Predictions › Mexico › América vs Tijuana

Liga MXThu 29 Oct, 03:00 Mexico time

América vs Tijuana prediction

Estadio Banorte

AméricaHome

1.87 : 0.95

expected goals

TijuanaAway

58%América

24%Draw

18%Tijuana

Eagle safe pickAmérica or Draw

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for América vs Tijuana is América to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is América or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction: América to win
Chance: 58%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: América 1.9, Tijuana 0.9
Best bet: América or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

América or Draw

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

América to win and Over 2.5

38% chanceFair price 2.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives América 58%, the draw 24% and Tijuana 18%. The bookmakers agree and make América the favourite at 1.61.
2
Recent form
América took 8 points from their last 5 games and Tijuana took 3 from 5. América come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
América won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Tijuana won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
América score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Tijuana score 1.4 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of América games and 11 of Tijuana games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, América won 0 and Tijuana won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Tijuana 0, América 0.
6
The safest bet
América or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Tijuanarecent form-3%
Américarest between games-5%
Tijuanarest between games-2%

América form D D W D LTijuana form D D L D LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

América vs Tijuana: América are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

América host Tijuana in the Liga MX on Thu 29 Oct, 03:00 at Estadio Banorte. Our prediction for América vs Tijuana is América to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is América or Draw at 1.23.

América form

América have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, L, newest first.

Tijuana form

Tijuana have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. América won 0, Tijuana won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Tijuana 0, América 0.

Our call

We expect América to score about 1.9 goals and Tijuana about 0.9. That points to América to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is América or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is América to win and Over 2.5 at 2.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	América	Tijuana
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	8
Draws	8	6
Losses	3	6
Goals scored	40	27
Goals conceded	27	24
Scored per game	2.0	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	1.2
Home record	4W 4D 2L	6W 1D 3L
Away record	5W 4D 1L	2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	35%
Both teams scored	65%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
América to win	53%	1.88	1.61	-14.5%
A Draw	23%	4.41	4.10	-6.9%
Tijuana to win	18%	5.71	5.25	-8.1%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	1.99	1.74	-12.5%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.17	2.00	-7.9%
América -0.5	54%	1.87	1.57	-15.9%
Tijuana +0.5	43%	2.34	2.25	-3.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.88
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.22
Both teams to score	52%	1.91
América or Draw	82%	1.22
Tijuana or Draw	42%	2.40
América to win and Over 2.5	37%	2.68
Tijuana to win and Over 2.5	10%	9.66
América clean sheet	39%	2.58
Tijuana clean sheet	15%	6.46

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%

1-010.6%

2-010.5%

2-19.9%

0-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win América vs Tijuana?

Our prediction for América vs Tijuana is América to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is América or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for América vs Tijuana?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect América to score 1.9 goals and Tijuana 0.9.

Will both teams score in América vs Tijuana?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of América last 20 games and 11 of Tijuana last 20.

How are América playing?

How are Tijuana playing?

What happened when América and Tijuana last met?

It ended Tijuana 0, América 0. In the last 1 meeting América won 0 and Tijuana won 0.

What is the best bet for América vs Tijuana?

América or Draw at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in América against Tijuana. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.