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Predictions › Mexico › América vs Toluca
Liga MXSun 1 Nov, 03:00 Mexico time

América vs Toluca prediction

Estadio Banorte

AméricaHome
1.44 : 1.05
expected goals
TolucaAway
45%América
28%Draw
27%Toluca
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for América vs Toluca is América to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
América to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
América 1.4, Toluca 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives América 45%, the draw 28% and Toluca 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    América took 11 points from their last 5 games and Toluca took 3 from 5. América come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    América won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Toluca won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    América score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.4. Toluca score 2.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of América games and 13 of Toluca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, América won 1 and Toluca won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended América 2, Toluca 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Américarecent form+3%
  • Tolucarecent form-3%
  • Américarest between games-5%
  • Tolucarest between games-5%
América form D W D W DToluca form D D L D LHome edge in this league 30% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

América vs Toluca: América are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

América host Toluca in the Liga MX on Sun 1 Nov, 03:00 at Estadio Banorte. Our prediction for América vs Toluca is América to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

América form

América have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Toluca form

Toluca have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. América won 1, Toluca won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished América 2, Toluca 1.

Our call

We expect América to score about 1.4 goals and Toluca about 1.1. That points to América to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AméricaToluca
Games played2020
Wins108
Draws75
Losses37
Goals scored4441
Goals conceded2829
Scored per game2.22.0
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record4W 4D 2L5W 3D 3L
Away record6W 3D 1L3W 2D 4L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals60%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.40
Over 2.5 goals45%2.21
Over 3.5 goals24%4.19
Both teams to score50%1.99
América or Draw73%1.37
Toluca or Draw55%1.83
América to win and Over 2.525%3.94
Toluca to win and Over 2.514%7.04
América clean sheet35%2.85
Toluca clean sheet24%4.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-011.2%
0-09.1%
2-19.0%
2-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win América vs Toluca?

Our prediction for América vs Toluca is América to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for América vs Toluca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect América to score 1.4 goals and Toluca 1.1.

Will both teams score in América vs Toluca?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of América last 20 games and 13 of Toluca last 20.

How are América playing?

América have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Toluca playing?

Toluca have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when América and Toluca last met?

It ended América 2, Toluca 1. In the last 2 meetings América won 1 and Toluca won 1.

What is the best bet for América vs Toluca?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in América against Toluca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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