Predictions › Belgium › Anderlecht vs OH Leuven

Belgian Pro LeagueSun 22 Nov, 17:30 Belgium time

Anderlecht vs OH Leuven prediction

Lotto Park

AnderlechtHome

2.07 : 0.94

expected goals

OH LeuvenAway

63%Anderlecht

21%Draw

16%OH Leuven

Eagle safe pickAnderlecht or Draw

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Anderlecht vs OH Leuven is Anderlecht to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Anderlecht or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction: Anderlecht to win
Chance: 63%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Anderlecht 2.1, OH Leuven 0.9
Best bet: Anderlecht or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Anderlecht or Draw

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Anderlecht to win and Over 2.5

41% chanceFair price 2.441 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Anderlecht 63%, the draw 21% and OH Leuven 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Anderlecht the favourite at 1.42.
2
Recent form
Anderlecht took 10 points from their last 5 games and OH Leuven took 11 from 5. OH Leuven come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Anderlecht won 6 of their last 10 games at home. OH Leuven won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Anderlecht score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. OH Leuven score 1.0 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Anderlecht games and 9 of OH Leuven games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Anderlecht won 1 and OH Leuven won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Anderlecht 5, OH Leuven 1.
6
The safest bet
Anderlecht or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Anderlechtrecent form+3%
OH Leuvenrecent form+4%

Anderlecht form D W W L WOH Leuven form W W D D WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Anderlecht vs OH Leuven: Anderlecht are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Anderlecht host OH Leuven in the Belgian Pro League on Sun 22 Nov, 17:30 at Lotto Park. Our prediction for Anderlecht vs OH Leuven is Anderlecht to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Anderlecht or Draw at 1.19.

Anderlecht form

Anderlecht have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

OH Leuven form

OH Leuven have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Anderlecht won 1, OH Leuven won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Anderlecht 5, OH Leuven 1.

Our call

We expect Anderlecht to score about 2.1 goals and OH Leuven about 0.9. That points to Anderlecht to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Anderlecht or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Anderlecht to win and Over 2.5 at 2.44.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Anderlecht	OH Leuven
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	4
Draws	4	6
Losses	7	10
Goals scored	28	20
Goals conceded	27	31
Scored per game	1.4	1.0
Conceded per game	1.4	1.6
Home record	6W 2D 2L	3W 2D 5L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Anderlecht to win	59%	1.69	1.42	-16.2%
A Draw	21%	4.82	4.60	-4.6%
OH Leuven to win	15%	6.81	6.50	-4.6%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.86	1.51	-18.5%
Under 2.5 goals	39%	2.55	2.30	-9.8%
Anderlecht -1.5	41%	2.44	2.05	-16.0%
OH Leuven +1.5	52%	1.91	1.61	-16.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.73
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.82
Both teams to score	54%	1.86
Anderlecht or Draw	84%	1.19
OH Leuven or Draw	37%	2.69
Anderlecht to win and Over 2.5	43%	2.34
OH Leuven to win and Over 2.5	9%	10.63
Anderlecht clean sheet	39%	2.56
OH Leuven clean sheet	13%	7.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.6%

1-110.2%

2-19.9%

1-09.6%

3-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?

Our prediction for Anderlecht vs OH Leuven is Anderlecht to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Anderlecht or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-1. We expect Anderlecht to score 2.1 goals and OH Leuven 0.9.

Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Anderlecht last 20 games and 9 of OH Leuven last 20.

How are Anderlecht playing?

How are OH Leuven playing?

What happened when Anderlecht and OH Leuven last met?

It ended Anderlecht 5, OH Leuven 1. In the last 2 meetings Anderlecht won 1 and OH Leuven won 0.

What is the best bet for Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?

Anderlecht or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Anderlecht against OH Leuven. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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