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Predictions › Europa League › Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg
Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 17:45 UTC

Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg prediction

Lotto Park

AnderlechtHome
1.55 : 1.24
expected goals
RB SalzburgAway
44%Anderlecht
26%Draw
30%RB Salzburg
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg is Anderlecht to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Anderlecht to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Anderlecht 1.6, RB Salzburg 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

RB Salzburg to win
29% chancePrice 3.65+4.2% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Anderlecht 44%, the draw 26% and RB Salzburg 30%. The bookmakers agree and make Anderlecht the favourite at 1.87.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Anderlecht took 9 points from their last 5 games and RB Salzburg took 8 from 5. Anderlecht come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Anderlecht won 4 of their last 9 games at home. RB Salzburg won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Anderlecht score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.6. RB Salzburg score 1.9 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Anderlecht games and 13 of RB Salzburg games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Anderlechtrecent form+3%
  • Anderlechtrest between games-5%
  • RB Salzburgrest between games-5%
Anderlecht form D W L W WRB Salzburg form D D W L DHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg: Anderlecht shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Anderlecht host RB Salzburg in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 17:45 at Lotto Park. Our prediction for Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg is Anderlecht to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Anderlecht form

Anderlecht have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

RB Salzburg form

RB Salzburg have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Anderlecht to score about 1.6 goals and RB Salzburg about 1.2. That points to Anderlecht to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is RB Salzburg to win at 3.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AnderlechtRB Salzburg
Games played2020
Wins810
Draws35
Losses95
Goals scored2438
Goals conceded3123
Scored per game1.21.9
Conceded per game1.61.1
Home record4W 2D 3L6W 1D 3L
Away record4W 1D 6L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored50%60%
Over 2.5 goals65%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Anderlecht to win43%2.341.87-20.2%
A Draw25%3.943.80-3.4%
RB Salzburg to win29%3.503.65+4.2%
Over 2.5 goals52%1.911.56-18.6%
Under 2.5 goals42%2.402.30-4.3%
Anderlecht -0.546%2.181.80-17.4%
RB Salzburg +0.548%2.081.83-11.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.89
Over 3.5 goals31%3.25
Both teams to score57%1.76
Anderlecht or Draw70%1.42
RB Salzburg or Draw56%1.78
Anderlecht to win and Over 2.528%3.61
RB Salzburg to win and Over 2.518%5.49
Anderlecht clean sheet29%3.47
RB Salzburg clean sheet21%4.73

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
2-19.2%
1-08.8%
2-07.4%
1-27.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg?

Our prediction for Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg is Anderlecht to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Anderlecht to score 1.6 goals and RB Salzburg 1.2.

Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Anderlecht last 20 games and 12 of RB Salzburg last 20.

How are Anderlecht playing?

Anderlecht have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are RB Salzburg playing?

RB Salzburg have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Anderlecht against RB Salzburg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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