Predictions › France › Angers vs Marseille

Ligue 1Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 France time

Angers vs Marseille prediction

Stade Raymond Kopa

AngersHome

1.32 : 1.44

expected goals

MarseilleAway

34%Angers

27%Draw

39%Marseille

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Angers vs Marseille is Marseille to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Marseille to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Angers 1.3, Marseille 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Angers to win

33% chancePrice 3.10+1.4% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Angers 34%, the draw 27% and Marseille 39%. The bookmakers agree and make Marseille the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Angers took 7 points from their last 5 games and Marseille took 0 from 5. Angers come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Angers won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Marseille won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Angers score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Marseille score 1.3 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Angers games and 12 of Marseille games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Angers won 0 and Marseille won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Angers 2, Marseille 5.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Marseillerecent form-7%

Angers form W D L W LMarseille form L L L L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Angers vs Marseille: Marseille shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Angers host Marseille in the Ligue 1 on Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 at Stade Raymond Kopa. Our prediction for Angers vs Marseille is Marseille to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Angers form

Angers have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Marseille form

Marseille have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Angers won 0, Marseille won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Angers 2, Marseille 5.

Our call

We expect Angers to score about 1.3 goals and Marseille about 1.4. That points to Marseille to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Angers to win at 3.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Angers	Marseille
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	7
Draws	5	2
Losses	10	11
Goals scored	15	25
Goals conceded	28	35
Scored per game	0.8	1.3
Conceded per game	1.4	1.8
Home record	3W 3D 5L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	2W 2D 5L	2W 0D 8L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Angers to win	33%	3.06	3.10	+1.4%
A Draw	26%	3.79	3.65	-3.7%
Marseille to win	37%	2.71	2.10	-22.6%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.88	1.57	-16.6%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	2.49	2.25	-9.6%
Angers +0.5	53%	1.90	1.67	-12.3%
Marseille -0.5	41%	2.46	2.00	-18.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	30%	3.33
Both teams to score	57%	1.76
Angers or Draw	61%	1.65
Marseille or Draw	66%	1.51
Angers to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.81
Marseille to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.10
Angers clean sheet	24%	4.23
Marseille clean sheet	27%	3.76

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%

1-28.7%

0-18.3%

2-18.0%

1-07.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Angers vs Marseille?

Our prediction for Angers vs Marseille is Marseille to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Angers vs Marseille?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Angers to score 1.3 goals and Marseille 1.4.

Will both teams score in Angers vs Marseille?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Angers last 20 games and 10 of Marseille last 20.

How are Angers playing?

How are Marseille playing?

What happened when Angers and Marseille last met?

It ended Angers 2, Marseille 5. In the last 2 meetings Angers won 0 and Marseille won 1.

What is the best bet for Angers vs Marseille?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Angers against Marseille. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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