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Predictions › Italy › Arezzo vs Benevento
Serie BSat 24 Oct, 17:30 Italy time

Arezzo vs Benevento prediction

Stadio Città di Arezzo

ArezzoHome
1.07 : 1.30
expected goals
BeneventoAway
30%Arezzo
29%Draw
41%Benevento
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arezzo vs Benevento is Benevento to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Benevento to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Arezzo 1.1, Benevento 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Arezzo 30%, the draw 29% and Benevento 41%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Arezzo took 4 points from their last 5 games and Benevento took 10 from 5. Benevento come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    Arezzo score 1.0 goals a game and let in 2.2. Benevento score 1.3 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Arezzo games and 2 of Benevento games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Arezzorecent form-3%
  • Beneventorecent form+1%
Arezzo form D L W L LBenevento form D W W L DHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Arezzo vs Benevento: Benevento shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Arezzo host Benevento in the Serie B on Sat 24 Oct, 17:30 at Stadio Città di Arezzo. Our prediction for Arezzo vs Benevento is Benevento to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Arezzo form

Arezzo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 6 games, with 6 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Benevento form

Benevento have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 6 games, with 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss from 2. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Arezzo to score about 1.1 goals and Benevento about 1.3. That points to Benevento to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.26.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 6 games in all competitions.

ArezzoBenevento
Games played66
Wins23
Draws11
Losses32
Goals scored68
Goals conceded135
Scored per game1.01.3
Conceded per game2.20.8
Home record0W 1D 2L2W 1D 1L
Away record2W 0D 1L1W 0D 1L
Clean sheets33%33%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals67%33%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.44
Over 2.5 goals42%2.36
Over 3.5 goals22%4.63
Both teams to score49%2.06
Arezzo or Draw59%1.70
Benevento or Draw70%1.42
Arezzo to win and Over 2.515%6.57
Benevento to win and Over 2.522%4.58
Arezzo clean sheet27%3.68
Benevento clean sheet34%2.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
0-111.4%
0-010.1%
1-09.2%
1-28.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Arezzo vs Benevento?

Our prediction for Arezzo vs Benevento is Benevento to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Arezzo vs Benevento?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Arezzo to score 1.1 goals and Benevento 1.3.

Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Benevento?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 3 of Arezzo last 6 games and 3 of Benevento last 6.

How are Arezzo playing?

Arezzo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 6 games, with 6 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Benevento playing?

Benevento have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 6 games, with 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss from 2. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Arezzo vs Benevento?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Arezzo against Benevento. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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