Predictions › Italy › Arezzo vs Cremonese

Serie BSat 10 Oct, 17:30 Italy time

Arezzo vs Cremonese prediction

Stadio Città di Arezzo

ArezzoHome

1.20 : 1.34

expected goals

CremoneseAway

33%Arezzo

28%Draw

39%Cremonese

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arezzo vs Cremonese is Cremonese to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Cremonese to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Arezzo 1.2, Cremonese 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.331 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.451 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Arezzo 33%, the draw 28% and Cremonese 39%. The bookmakers agree and make Cremonese the favourite at 2.40.
2
Recent form
Arezzo took 6 points from their last 5 games and Cremonese took 5 from 5. Arezzo come in with the better run.
3
Goals
Arezzo score 1.2 goals a game and let in 2.6. Cremonese score 0.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Arezzo games and 12 of Cremonese games in that run.
4
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Arezzorecent form-1%
Cremoneserecent form+1%

Arezzo form L W L L WCremonese form D D W W LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Arezzo vs Cremonese: Cremonese shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Arezzo host Cremonese in the Serie B on Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 at Stadio Città di Arezzo. Our prediction for Arezzo vs Cremonese is Cremonese to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Arezzo form

Arezzo have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 2. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Cremonese form

Cremonese have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Arezzo to score about 1.2 goals and Cremonese about 1.3. That points to Cremonese to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.45.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Arezzo	Cremonese
Games played	5	20
Wins	2	4
Draws	0	4
Losses	3	12
Goals scored	6	17
Goals conceded	13	33
Scored per game	1.2	0.8
Conceded per game	2.6	1.6
Home record	0W 0D 2L	2W 3D 6L
Away record	2W 0D 1L	2W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Arezzo to win	31%	3.20	2.90	-9.3%
A Draw	27%	3.66	3.15	-14.0%
Cremonese to win	37%	2.73	2.40	-12.1%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.33	2.00	-14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	1.97	1.67	-15.2%
Arezzo +0.5	57%	1.75	1.51	-13.7%
Cremonese -0.5	37%	2.69	2.25	-16.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.96
Both teams to score	52%	1.91
Arezzo or Draw	61%	1.64
Cremonese or Draw	67%	1.49
Arezzo to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.46
Cremonese to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.47
Arezzo clean sheet	26%	3.83
Cremonese clean sheet	30%	3.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%

0-19.8%

1-08.7%

0-08.6%

1-28.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Arezzo vs Cremonese?

Our prediction for Arezzo vs Cremonese is Cremonese to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Arezzo vs Cremonese?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Arezzo to score 1.2 goals and Cremonese 1.3.

Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Cremonese?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 3 of Arezzo last 5 games and 8 of Cremonese last 20.

How are Arezzo playing?

How are Cremonese playing?

What is the best bet for Arezzo vs Cremonese?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Arezzo against Cremonese. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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