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Predictions › Italy › Arezzo vs Padova
Serie BSun 22 Nov, 16:15 Italy time

Arezzo vs Padova prediction

Stadio Città di Arezzo

ArezzoHome
1.25 : 1.26
expected goals
PadovaAway
35%Arezzo
29%Draw
36%Padova
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arezzo vs Padova is Padova to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Padova to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Arezzo 1.3, Padova 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Padova to win
35% chancePrice 2.90+2.1% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Arezzo 35%, the draw 29% and Padova 36%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Arezzo the favourite at 2.35, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Arezzo took 4 points from their last 5 games and Padova took 8 from 5. Padova come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Arezzo won 0 of their last 5 games at home. Padova won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Arezzo score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.8. Padova score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Arezzo games and 7 of Padova games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Arezzorecent form-3%
  • Padovarecent form+1%
Arezzo form L D L L WPadova form D D W W LHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Arezzo vs Padova: Padova shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Arezzo host Padova in the Serie B on Sun 22 Nov, 16:15 at Stadio Città di Arezzo. Our prediction for Arezzo vs Padova is Padova to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Arezzo form

Arezzo have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 11 games, with 9 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Padova form

Padova have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Arezzo to score about 1.3 goals and Padova about 1.3. That points to Padova to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Padova to win at 2.90.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ArezzoPadova
Games played1120
Wins38
Draws23
Losses69
Goals scored921
Goals conceded2026
Scored per game0.81.1
Conceded per game1.81.3
Home record0W 2D 3L5W 2D 4L
Away record3W 0D 3L3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets27%35%
Both teams scored45%45%
Over 2.5 goals64%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Arezzo to win35%2.882.35-18.4%
A Draw28%3.573.20-10.3%
Padova to win35%2.842.90+2.1%
Over 2.5 goals44%2.281.95-14.3%
Under 2.5 goals49%2.031.71-15.5%
Arezzo -0.538%2.612.20-15.6%
Padova +0.555%1.811.54-14.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals46%2.19
Over 3.5 goals24%4.11
Both teams to score52%1.93
Arezzo or Draw64%1.56
Padova or Draw65%1.55
Arezzo to win and Over 2.520%5.07
Padova to win and Over 2.520%4.99
Arezzo clean sheet28%3.52
Padova clean sheet29%3.48

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%
0-19.5%
1-09.4%
0-08.9%
1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Arezzo vs Padova?

Our prediction for Arezzo vs Padova is Padova to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Arezzo vs Padova?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Arezzo to score 1.3 goals and Padova 1.3.

Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Padova?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of Arezzo last 11 games and 9 of Padova last 20.

How are Arezzo playing?

Arezzo have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 11 games, with 9 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Padova playing?

Padova have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Arezzo vs Padova?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Arezzo against Padova. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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