Predictions › Italy › Arezzo vs Sudtirol

Serie BSun 20 Sept, 13:00 Italy time

Arezzo vs Sudtirol prediction

Stadio Città di Arezzo

ArezzoHome

1.21 : 1.25

expected goals

SudtirolAway

35%Arezzo

29%Draw

36%Sudtirol

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arezzo vs Sudtirol is Sudtirol to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Sudtirol to win
Chance: 36%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Arezzo 1.2, Sudtirol 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.301 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Arezzo 35%, the draw 29% and Sudtirol 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Arezzo took 6 points from their last 4 games and Sudtirol took 9 from 5. Sudtirol come in with the better run.
3
Goals
Arezzo score 1.3 goals a game and let in 2.3. Sudtirol score 0.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Arezzo games and 7 of Sudtirol games in that run.
4
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Arezzorecent form-1%
Sudtirolrecent form+4%
Arezzorest between games-5%
Sudtirolrest between games-5%

Arezzo form W L L W LSudtirol form D W D W WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Arezzo vs Sudtirol: Sudtirol shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Arezzo host Sudtirol in the Serie B on Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 at Stadio Città di Arezzo. Our prediction for Arezzo vs Sudtirol is Sudtirol to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Arezzo form

Arezzo have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 4 games, with 5 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 4 results read W, L, L, W, newest first.

Sudtirol form

Sudtirol have 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Arezzo to score about 1.2 goals and Sudtirol about 1.3. That points to Sudtirol to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.30.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Arezzo	Sudtirol
Games played	4	20
Wins	2	4
Draws	0	9
Losses	2	7
Goals scored	5	19
Goals conceded	9	27
Scored per game	1.3	0.9
Conceded per game	2.3	1.4
Home record	0W 0D 1L	2W 6D 3L
Away record	2W 0D 1L	2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.41
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.25
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.28
Both teams to score	51%	1.97
Arezzo or Draw	64%	1.57
Sudtirol or Draw	65%	1.53
Arezzo to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.30
Sudtirol to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.03
Arezzo clean sheet	29%	3.48
Sudtirol clean sheet	30%	3.36

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%

0-19.9%

1-09.6%

0-09.3%

1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Arezzo vs Sudtirol?

Our prediction for Arezzo vs Sudtirol is Sudtirol to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Arezzo vs Sudtirol?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Arezzo to score 1.2 goals and Sudtirol 1.3.

Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Sudtirol?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 2 of Arezzo last 4 games and 10 of Sudtirol last 20.

How are Arezzo playing?

How are Sudtirol playing?

What is the best bet for Arezzo vs Sudtirol?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Arezzo against Sudtirol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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