Predictions › Argentina › Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre

Argentina Liga ProfesionalSun 4 Oct, 22:15 Argentina time

Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre prediction

Diego Armando Maradona

Argentinos JuniorsHome

1.40 : 0.74

expected goals

TigreAway

52%Argentinos

29%Draw

19%Tigre

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre is Argentinos Juniors to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: Argentinos Juniors to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Argentinos Juniors 1.4, Tigre 0.7
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0

16% chanceFair price 6.351 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Argentinos Juniors 52%, the draw 29% and Tigre 19%. The bookmakers agree and make Argentinos Juniors the favourite at 1.80.
2
Recent form
Argentinos Juniors took 6 points from their last 5 games and Tigre took 4 from 5. Argentinos Juniors come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Argentinos Juniors won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Tigre won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Argentinos Juniors score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.9. Tigre score 0.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Argentinos Juniors games and 6 of Tigre games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Argentinos Juniors won 0 and Tigre won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Tigre 1, Argentinos Juniors 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Tigrerecent form-3%

Argentinos form L D D W DTigre form L L L D WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre: Argentinos Juniors are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Argentinos Juniors host Tigre in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sun 4 Oct, 22:15 at Diego Armando Maradona. Our prediction for Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre is Argentinos Juniors to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Argentinos Juniors form

Argentinos Juniors have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, D, newest first.

Tigre form

Tigre have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Argentinos Juniors won 0, Tigre won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Tigre 1, Argentinos Juniors 1.

Our call

We expect Argentinos Juniors to score about 1.4 goals and Tigre about 0.7. That points to Argentinos Juniors to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.35.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Argentinos	Tigre
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	3
Draws	4	9
Losses	4	8
Goals scored	28	16
Goals conceded	19	21
Scored per game	1.4	0.8
Conceded per game	0.9	1.1
Home record	8W 2D 0L	2W 6D 2L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	1W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Argentinos Juniors to win	49%	2.05	1.80	-12.3%
A Draw	28%	3.59	3.25	-9.5%
Tigre to win	19%	5.29	4.50	-14.9%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	2.85	2.40	-15.9%
Under 2.5 goals	61%	1.65	1.49	-9.6%
Argentinos Juniors -0.5	49%	2.04	1.74	-14.6%
Tigre +0.5	45%	2.24	1.91	-14.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	64%	1.57
Over 2.5 goals	36%	2.78
Over 3.5 goals	17%	5.94
Both teams to score	40%	2.49
Argentinos Juniors or Draw	81%	1.24
Tigre or Draw	48%	2.08
Argentinos Juniors to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.06
Tigre to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.70
Argentinos Juniors clean sheet	48%	2.10
Tigre clean sheet	25%	4.04

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.7%

1-112.9%

0-012.5%

2-011.5%

2-18.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre?

Our prediction for Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre is Argentinos Juniors to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Argentinos Juniors to score 1.4 goals and Tigre 0.7.

Will both teams score in Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Argentinos Juniors last 20 games and 10 of Tigre last 20.

How are Argentinos Juniors playing?

How are Tigre playing?

What happened when Argentinos Juniors and Tigre last met?

It ended Tigre 1, Argentinos Juniors 1. In the last 1 meeting Argentinos Juniors won 0 and Tigre won 0.

What is the best bet for Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Argentinos against Tigre. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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