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Predictions › United States › Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
MLBFri 25 Sept, 21:40 United States time

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres prediction

Petco Park

Arizona DiamondbacksAway
3.7 : 4.3
projected runs
San Diego PadresHome
44%Diamondbacks
56%Padres
Eagle safe pickOver 5.5 runs
-272

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres is San Diego Padres to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Arizona Diamondbacks 3.7 and San Diego Padres 4.3. Our best bet is Over 5.5 runs at -272.

Prediction
San Diego Padres to win
Chance
56%
Projected score
Arizona Diamondbacks 4, San Diego Padres 4
Projected total
8.0 runs
Best bet
Over 5.5 runs at -272

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 5.5 runs
73% chanceFair price -2721 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Diamondbacks to win
40% chanceFair price +1491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives San Diego Padres 56% and Arizona Diamondbacks 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    San Diego Padres won 5 of their last 5 and Arizona Diamondbacks won 2 of their last 5. San Diego Padres come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    San Diego Padres won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Arizona Diamondbacks won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    San Diego Padres score 4.5 runs a game and let in 3.9. Arizona Diamondbacks score 3.8 and let in 4.0. Their recent games average 8.4 and 7.8 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, San Diego Padres won 2 and Arizona Diamondbacks won 3. The last one ended Arizona Diamondbacks 1, San Diego Padres 5.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 5.5 runs has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Padresrest between games-5%
  • Diamondbacksrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres: San Diego Padres shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

San Diego Padres host Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB on Fri 25 Sept, 21:40 at Petco Park. Our prediction for Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres is San Diego Padres to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Arizona Diamondbacks 3.7 and San Diego Padres 4.3. Our best bet is Over 5.5 runs at -272.

San Diego Padres form

San Diego Padres have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 91 runs scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Arizona Diamondbacks form

Arizona Diamondbacks have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 75 runs scored and 81 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. San Diego Padres won 2, Arizona Diamondbacks won 3. Last time out it finished Arizona Diamondbacks 1, San Diego Padres 5.

Our call

We expect Arizona Diamondbacks to score about 3.7 runs and San Diego Padres about 4.3. That points to San Diego Padres to win. Our safest bet is Over 5.5 runs at -272. Our bold bet is Diamondbacks to win at +149.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PadresDiamondbacks
Games played2020
Wins1211
Losses89
Runs scored9175
Runs conceded7781
Scored per game4.53.8
Conceded per game3.94.0
Home record7W 3L5W 5L
Away record5W 5L6W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Padres spreadCoversFair
Padres -2.533%+203
Padres -1.542%+138
Padres -0.551%-106
Padres +0.561%-155
Padres +1.570%-229
Total runsOverUnder
5.571%29%
6.563%37%
7.554%46%
8.545%55%
9.537%63%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Padres +3.5 wins if Padres win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Martinez Shuts Down Rangers With Rare Immaculate Inning

Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Justin Martinez threw a rare immaculate inning against the Texas Rangers, striking out three batters on just nine pitches.

12 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres?

Our prediction for Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres is San Diego Padres to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Arizona Diamondbacks 3.7 and San Diego Padres 4.3. Our best bet is Over 5.5 runs at -272.

What is the projected score for Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres?

We project Arizona Diamondbacks 3.7 and San Diego Padres 4.3, about 8.0 runs in total.

How are San Diego Padres playing?

San Diego Padres have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 91 runs scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Arizona Diamondbacks playing?

Arizona Diamondbacks have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 75 runs scored and 81 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks last met?

It ended Arizona Diamondbacks 1, San Diego Padres 5. In the last 5 meetings San Diego Padres won 2 and Arizona Diamondbacks won 3.

What is the best bet for Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres?

Over 5.5 runs at -272, with a 73% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Padres against Diamondbacks. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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