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Predictions › Germany › Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck
2. BundesligaSun 18 Oct, 11:30 Germany time

Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck prediction

SchücoArena

Arminia BielefeldHome
1.93 : 1.34
expected goals
VfL OsnabruckAway
51%Bielefeld
23%Draw
26%Osnabruck
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck is Arminia Bielefeld to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Arminia Bielefeld to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Arminia Bielefeld 1.9, VfL Osnabruck 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Arminia Bielefeld to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price 2.861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Arminia Bielefeld 51%, the draw 23% and VfL Osnabruck 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Arminia Bielefeld took 5 points from their last 5 games and VfL Osnabruck took 7 from 5. VfL Osnabruck come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of their last 10 games at home. VfL Osnabruck won 1 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Arminia Bielefeld score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.8. VfL Osnabruck score 1.5 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Arminia Bielefeld games and 4 of VfL Osnabruck games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bielefeldrecent form-4%
Bielefeld form D L D L LOsnabruck form D L W L WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck: Arminia Bielefeld are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Arminia Bielefeld host VfL Osnabruck in the 2. Bundesliga on Sun 18 Oct, 11:30 at SchücoArena. Our prediction for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck is Arminia Bielefeld to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Arminia Bielefeld form

Arminia Bielefeld have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

VfL Osnabruck form

VfL Osnabruck have 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 6 games, with 9 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Arminia Bielefeld to score about 1.9 goals and VfL Osnabruck about 1.3. That points to Arminia Bielefeld to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Arminia Bielefeld to win and Over 2.5 at 2.86.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BielefeldOsnabruck
Games played206
Wins62
Draws51
Losses93
Goals scored339
Goals conceded3512
Scored per game1.61.5
Conceded per game1.82.0
Home record4W 5D 1L1W 0D 2L
Away record2W 0D 8L1W 1D 1L
Clean sheets10%17%
Both teams scored75%67%
Over 2.5 goals70%67%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.57
Over 3.5 goals41%2.42
Both teams to score64%1.57
Arminia Bielefeld or Draw74%1.35
VfL Osnabruck or Draw49%2.02
Arminia Bielefeld to win and Over 2.537%2.72
VfL Osnabruck to win and Over 2.518%5.50
Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet26%3.83
VfL Osnabruck clean sheet15%6.89

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.4%
2-19.5%
2-07.1%
1-06.7%
1-26.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck?

Our prediction for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck is Arminia Bielefeld to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Arminia Bielefeld to score 1.9 goals and VfL Osnabruck 1.3.

Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Arminia Bielefeld last 20 games and 4 of VfL Osnabruck last 6.

How are Arminia Bielefeld playing?

Arminia Bielefeld have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

How are VfL Osnabruck playing?

VfL Osnabruck have 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 6 games, with 9 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bielefeld against Osnabruck. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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