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Predictions › Portugal › Arouca vs C.D. Nacional
Primeira LigaSun 1 Nov, 15:30 Portugal time

Arouca vs C.D. Nacional prediction

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

AroucaHome
1.96 : 0.93
expected goals
C.D. NacionalAway
61%Arouca
23%Draw
17%Nacional
Eagle safe pickArouca or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arouca vs C.D. Nacional is Arouca to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Arouca or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
Arouca to win
Chance
61%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Arouca 2.0, C.D. Nacional 0.9
Best bet
Arouca or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Arouca or Draw
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Arouca to win and Over 2.5
40% chanceFair price 2.481 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Arouca 61%, the draw 23% and C.D. Nacional 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Arouca took 8 points from their last 5 games and C.D. Nacional took 0 from 5. Arouca come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Arouca won 7 of their last 10 games at home. C.D. Nacional won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Arouca score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. C.D. Nacional score 0.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Arouca games and 8 of C.D. Nacional games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Arouca won 2 and C.D. Nacional won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Arouca 3, C.D. Nacional 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Arouca or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nacionalrecent form-6%
Arouca form D W D L DNacional form D L L L LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Arouca vs C.D. Nacional: Arouca are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Arouca host C.D. Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Our prediction for Arouca vs C.D. Nacional is Arouca to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Arouca or Draw at 1.21.

Arouca form

Arouca have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, W, newest first.

C.D. Nacional form

C.D. Nacional have 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Arouca won 2, C.D. Nacional won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Arouca 3, C.D. Nacional 0.

Our call

We expect Arouca to score about 2.0 goals and C.D. Nacional about 0.9. That points to Arouca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Arouca or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Arouca to win and Over 2.5 at 2.48.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AroucaNacional
Games played2020
Wins105
Draws32
Losses713
Goals scored3019
Goals conceded2232
Scored per game1.50.9
Conceded per game1.11.6
Home record7W 1D 2L4W 0D 6L
Away record3W 2D 5L1W 2D 7L
Clean sheets35%25%
Both teams scored50%35%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.82
Over 3.5 goals33%3.06
Both teams to score52%1.91
Arouca or Draw83%1.20
C.D. Nacional or Draw39%2.56
Arouca to win and Over 2.540%2.51
C.D. Nacional to win and Over 2.510%10.43
Arouca clean sheet40%2.52
C.D. Nacional clean sheet14%7.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.7%
2-010.7%
1-010.4%
2-19.9%
3-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Arouca vs C.D. Nacional?

Our prediction for Arouca vs C.D. Nacional is Arouca to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Arouca or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Arouca vs C.D. Nacional?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-0. We expect Arouca to score 2.0 goals and C.D. Nacional 0.9.

Will both teams score in Arouca vs C.D. Nacional?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Arouca last 20 games and 7 of C.D. Nacional last 20.

How are Arouca playing?

Arouca have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, W, newest first.

How are C.D. Nacional playing?

C.D. Nacional have 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Arouca and C.D. Nacional last met?

It ended Arouca 3, C.D. Nacional 0. In the last 2 meetings Arouca won 2 and C.D. Nacional won 0.

What is the best bet for Arouca vs C.D. Nacional?

Arouca or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Arouca against Nacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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