Predictions › Portugal › Arouca vs Estrela

Primeira LigaSun 11 Oct, 19:30 Portugal time

Arouca vs Estrela prediction

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

AroucaHome

1.69 : 1.30

expected goals

EstrelaAway

46%Arouca

25%Draw

29%Estrela

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arouca vs Estrela is Arouca to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Arouca to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Arouca 1.7, Estrela 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Arouca to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Arouca 46%, the draw 25% and Estrela 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Arouca the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Arouca took 5 points from their last 5 games and Estrela took 8 from 5. Estrela come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Arouca won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Estrela won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Arouca score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Estrela score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Arouca games and 13 of Estrela games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Arouca won 1 and Estrela won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Arouca 1, Estrela 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Aroucarecent form-1%
Estrelarecent form+1%

Arouca form D L D W LEstrela form L D W D WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Arouca vs Estrela: Arouca are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Arouca host Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Sun 11 Oct, 19:30 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Our prediction for Arouca vs Estrela is Arouca to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Arouca form

Arouca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Estrela form

Estrela have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Arouca won 1, Estrela won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Arouca 1, Estrela 0.

Our call

We expect Arouca to score about 1.7 goals and Estrela about 1.3. That points to Arouca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Arouca to win and Over 2.5 at 3.34.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Arouca	Estrela
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	3
Draws	3	8
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	31	27
Goals conceded	25	33
Scored per game	1.6	1.4
Conceded per game	1.3	1.6
Home record	6W 1D 2L	2W 4D 4L
Away record	3W 2D 6L	1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Arouca to win	43%	2.32	2.10	-9.6%
A Draw	25%	4.06	3.40	-16.2%
Estrela to win	28%	3.55	3.20	-9.8%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.03	1.83	-9.9%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.23	1.83	-17.6%
Arouca -0.5	43%	2.35	2.00	-14.8%
Estrela +0.5	52%	1.94	1.65	-15.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.74
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.86
Both teams to score	60%	1.67
Arouca or Draw	71%	1.41
Estrela or Draw	54%	1.85
Arouca to win and Over 2.5	31%	3.24
Estrela to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.31
Arouca clean sheet	27%	3.68
Estrela clean sheet	19%	5.40

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%

2-19.3%

1-07.8%

1-27.2%

2-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Arouca vs Estrela?

Our prediction for Arouca vs Estrela is Arouca to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Arouca vs Estrela?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Arouca to score 1.7 goals and Estrela 1.3.

Will both teams score in Arouca vs Estrela?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Arouca last 20 games and 12 of Estrela last 20.

How are Arouca playing?

How are Estrela playing?

What happened when Arouca and Estrela last met?

It ended Arouca 1, Estrela 0. In the last 2 meetings Arouca won 1 and Estrela won 1.

What is the best bet for Arouca vs Estrela?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Arouca against Estrela. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.